Heung Yee Kuk chief Kenneth Lau Ip-keung's bid for a seat on Hong Kong Jockey Club's board of stewards may have ruffled the feathers of the club's leadership but the outcome could be indicative.

There are only two probable outcomes on September 8.

One, Lau wins, thereby defeating one of the candidates recommended by Jockey Club deputy chairman Michael Lee Tze-hau, who is widely tipped to succeed Philip Chen Nan-lok as chairman.

Alternatively, Lau is defeated, unable to enrich his business card with one more prestigious title in addition to those of Executive Council member, Legislative Council member and Heung Yee Kuk chairman.

Nomination for the election closed yesterday and Lau throwing his hat in the ring interrupted the Jockey Club's long-held tradition that, although the board is due to be elected, vacancies are usually "contested" by an equal number of candidates.

While it has been the norm that those running for the board have been invited to do so, Lau clearly has not received an invitation given that a letter sent by deputy chairman Lee to voting members named all seven other candidates - but not Lau.

There is no question that the Jockey Club is one of the government's most important partners. In 2021, it contributed a massive HK$24.9 billion to the government, as well as HK$4.5 billion in donations to various charitable causes.

So it is unsurprising that the organization is closely monitored - if not controlled - by the administration.

For example, Exco member and political heavyweight Martin Liao Cheung-kong is considered to be second in line for the board chairmanship. After Lee succeeds Chan as chairman and finishes the term, Liao is expected to assume the club's top post.

Meanwhile, voting members are not short of senior government officials, including Chief Secretary Eric Chan Kwok-ki, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po and Secretary for Security Chris Tang Ping-keung.

Even though Lau is an Exco member, his addition would not strengthen the strong influence that the government already has over the Jockey Club. In view of his lack of a blessing from the current club leadership, Lau would have to have the blessing of the government if he has a chance of winning the September vote.

In the event he wins, his victory would confirm he has the blessings of the government. Then, a question would arise: why such blessings?

The most likely answer is Lau's influence in the New Territories. Although he is not as influential as his late father Lau Wong-fat among indigenous landlords, the son inherited the Kuk chairmanship from his father and is in a position to ease the way for government housing programs.

However, in the event that Lau loses in the race, it would be clear that the government does not endorse his attempt.

In either situation, the outcome would offer a glimpse of the political bargaining chips that Lau has maintained, which may also reflect on the political clout of the Heung Yee Kuk in the current political landscape.

No wonder the rare bid by Lau for a higher role in the Jockey Club has drawn so much attention in local political and business circles.

Jockey Club too big to fail