Lui turns to feng shui as near misses pile up
Francis Lui Kin-wai saddles four runners at Happy Valley trying to end a six-meeting losing run.
According to on.cc, a feng shui master visited Lui’s stable this week as he looks to turn his fortunes around. The numbers suggest there is little wrong beyond the absence of a winner, and at some point those near misses should start falling his way.
Lui has sent out 40 runners since Mighty Steed scored on September 9 and 22 of them, or 55 percent, have finished within three lengths of the winner. Fourteen have run second or third, while eight were beaten a length or less.
Superb King looks one of Lui’s strongest chances on the card and is likely to attract plenty of support again, particularly with Zac Purton back aboard. He is one of eight Lui-trained favorites beaten this season, a group that has produced three seconds and two thirds but no winner.
Across the past four meetings alone, 15 of Lui’s 25 runners have finished within three lengths, including five seconds and five thirds.
Three Happy Valley meetings and 25 races into the season, there is little evidence of a blanket inside-draw advantage, although the widest gates have found it tough.
Barriers 11 and 12 are still winless from 45 starters despite producing nine placings, while gates one to four have supplied 12 of the 25 winners.
The more interesting trend is where horses have been settling. At the 400-meter mark, nine winners were positioned in the first four, 13 were sitting fifth to eighth and only three were ninth or worse. Just four of the 25 winners were actually leading.
That pattern is particularly relevant over 1,200 meters, which accounts for four races on Wednesday’s nine-race card. Horses settling midfield, between fifth and eighth early, have supplied six of the 11 winners and 19 of the 33 placings, while gates one to four have produced only three winners over the trip.
The picture changes at 1,650 meters, where five of eight winners have jumped from barriers one to four.
Zac Purton has ridden Beauty Show in all six career starts, but today he will be on the other side of the equation when Andrea Atzeni takes over and Purton partners Superb King.
Beauty Show has finished second three times from six starts over the Valley 1,000 meters, but his first-up run was the worst of them, weakening badly to finish 12th as the $4.50 equal favorite before being required to pass a veterinary examination.
Purton goes elsewhere this time, reuniting with Superb King in the same race for their second start together, and there is already an interesting pattern around the horses he hops off.
Of the first 10 Purton came off at their next start this season, nine started at substantially bigger prices. Their median price jumped from $6.45 under Purton to $29.50 without him.
Purton had rides in all 10 races and those mounts produced two wins and five top-three finishes. The horses he got off have one win and two top-three finishes.
That lone winner was Bunta Baby, who went from $5.60 under Purton to $39 before scoring under Luke Ferraris and beating Purton aboard $2.10 favorite Solid State.
