Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has adjusted upward its forecast for Hong Kong's merchandise export growth in 2026 to 42 percent to 47 percent, driven by stronger-than-expected global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related technologies, prompting a major upgrade to the trade outlook.
The latest HKTDC Export Confidence Index (3Q26) indicates that exporter sentiment remains broadly positive despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The Current Performance Index stood at 51.8, while the Expectation Index registered 51.3, both remaining above the neutral 50-point threshold.
“Demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronics expanded much faster than expected, providing substantial support to Hong Kong's exports,” said Bruce Pang Ming, director of research at the HKTDC.
Regional manufacturing networks spanning the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN economies remain active, supporting trade flows throughout Asia, according to Wing Chu, the HKTDC's Deputy Director of Research.
Hong Kong's exports to the United States have remained remarkably resilient, with US-bound exports rising 63.4 percent year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026, despite ongoing trade uncertainties.
"The September Xi-Trump meeting and extension of the trade truce until January 2027, coupled with the US$30 billion Reciprocal Tariff Reduction Arrangement, provide a welcome period of stability, reducing the risk of further tariff escalation in the coming months," Pang added.
