Rebel thug's means to an end

The rebellion by Wagner mercenary group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin could not have ended more dramatically.

After seizing control of Russian city Rostov-on-Don some 600 miles south of Moscow and advancing beyond the city of Voronezh about 300 miles south of the capital, a plane reportedly carrying Russian president Vladimir Putin took off in Moscow.

Prigozhin's military column slowed down as Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko intervened to broker a deal.

The column towards Moscow stopped and started, turning around after reaching a point on the M4 highway about 200 miles from Moscow.

A deal was announced, according to which Prigozhin would go into exile in Belarus and Wagner fighters would return to their bases. Moscow also agreed not to press criminal charges against the Wagner rebels, including Prigozhin.

As Putin continues to suffer setbacks on the frontline with Ukraine, he seems to have resolved an internal crisis with the help of Lukashenko, a Putin subordinate who is now starting to gain just as the course of demise begins for Putin.

Prigozhin's about-face to threaten Moscow and subsequently his U-turn to leave his mercenaries behind in Russia as he cooked up an escape plan to Belarus has been typical of a ruthless killer.

It may be noted that the deal was reached almost as soon as negotiations began. It should have been clear by now that Prigozhin, knowing he would be in danger after the war, had been looking for an escape route to save himself.

It is the consensus that Russia has already lost the war even though fighting continues and Putin will have to face the consequences of the unjust war he initiated.

Prigozhin's mercenaries are responsible for a large number of the deaths suffered by Ukrainians. It can be expected that he would also be taken to task in any post-war trial.

His recent moves to withdraw from Ukrainian city Bakhmut to hand over Wagner occupied territory to demoralized Russian troops and, more recently, advance towards Moscow were more likely part of a self-protection plan.

Belarus is one of the few places he could go and, to secure the best possible deal, he kept the pressure up on Putin with threats.

Prigozhin had never meant to be serious in toppling Putin like Tang dynasty warlords An Lushan or Shi Siming during the An-Shi Rebellion from 755 to 763 AD.

The governor-turned warlord An had attempted to overturn the imperial kingdom of Tang.

Failing that, he made himself supremo of the local region that was disrupted after another governor-turned-warlord Shi replaced the An family to become the local supremo.

The rebellion was quelled by imperial forces eight years later.

Although Prigozhin's rebellion has been likened to the An-Shi Rebellion by bloggers and YouTubers, it would be misleading to draw a direct comparison between them.

For one, Prigozhin is a thug who never meant to seize power from Putin, simply hoping to remain safe after the war.

However, his rebellion has helped expose the weakness of Putin's leadership that may spur serious challenges the An-Shi way.