Hot Delight and Mr Incredible meet in early Classic Series showdown

Hot Delight and Mr Incredible have raced just 11 times between them, but seven wins and ratings of 92 and 82 have already established the two Private Purchase Griffins (PPGs) among Hong Kong's leading Classic Series prospects, and they meet for the first time at Sha Tin on Sunday.

Francis Lui Kin-wai's Hot Delight heads the ratings among Classic Series-eligible horses but must concede ten pounds to Brett Crawford's Mr Incredible in the extended-rating-band Class 2 Santa Monica Handicap (1,400m), where the pair have drawn alongside each other in barriers seven and eight.

There is still plenty of water to flow under the bridge before the Classic Mile in January, but both have made rapid progress through the grades.

Hot Delight has earned his rating with four wins from six starts, including one in Class 2, and lost little in defeat when beaten a short head by Sky Jewellery over Sunday's distance last month after racing wide without cover from the 900-meter mark.

Mr Incredible has had one fewer start but has shown plenty of promise himself, winning three of his first four races before returning from a break to finish a half-length second to Grand Eagle over 1,200 meters under 135 pounds on October 19, running on strongly after settling last from barrier 11.

Sunday will be his first attempt beyond 1,200 meters and his first in Class 2, where he gets the chance to measure up against the highest-rated four-year-old in Hong Kong from the bottom of the weights.

Hot Delight has achieved more so far, and his rating already puts him close to a familiar benchmark for Lui. Golden Sixty had reached 94 by October 2019 before sweeping all three legs of the Classic Series the following year, leaving Hot Delight just two points shy of his champion's mark at a similar stage.

But ratings tell us what horses have achieved, not necessarily what they might become, and other PPG Classic winners have emerged from much further down the handicap.

Voyage Bubble stood at 74 heading into November 2022 before going on to win the Classic Mile and Derby, while Invincible Ibis was still rated just 65 when he won at Sha Tin in late November last year, four months before his own Derby triumph.

Those ratings come from different seasons and are not directly comparable, but they show how much can change between November and March. Once Sunday's clash is out of the way, the inevitable questions about how far Hot Delight and Mr Incredible can stay will follow, although that may be getting ahead of things given how little racing either has had.

John Size has long argued that class is a better starting point than proven stamina when assessing Derby prospects, and the 13-time champion trainer may be on to something.

Of 14 PPGs who won Classic Series races over the past 20 seasons, 12 had not raced beyond 1,400 meters by early November. California Spangle and Super Sunny Sing had never ventured beyond 1,200 meters, yet both subsequently won the Classic Cup over 1,800 meters.

The Derby record tells a similar story. Of the 27 winners between 2000 and 2026, 16 had never raced at 2,000 meters or farther anywhere in the world before winning the race.

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