Packing Smart offers Hayes chance to end Happy Valley debutant drought

David Hayes has sent 23 Class 4 newcomers over Happy Valley’s 1,200 meters without a winner since returning to Hong Kong in 2020, but Packing Smart looks capable of ending that run on Wednesday night. 

The NZ$650,000 Ready to Run purchase makes his debut from barrier two in the Class 4 Ant Digital Technologies Cup (1,200m) after showing plenty of ability in three Hong Kong trials, although his eagerness to get on with the job has given his riders something to contend with.

Packing Smart pulled hard going up the Rock in his October 9 Happy Valley trial but still finished strongly to win over Wednesday’s course and distance. He was keen again in the early stages of his October 22 trial on Sha Tin’s all-weather track before running on well for second. 

Hayes acknowledges the son of Proisir still has some maturing to do mentally, but has little doubt about his ability.

“He’s shown that he’s very willing. He needs to probably relax 10 percent to go to top class, but he’s definitely got the engine and he’s very, very good,” Hayes said.

Winning with newcomers at Happy Valley has proved considerably harder for Hayes than at Sha Tin, where his 23 Class 4 debutants over the Valley’s 1,200 meters have failed to produce a winner, compared to six wins from 37 newcomers over the same distance on Sha Tin’s turf.

The Valley record needs some context, however. None of those 23 runners started favorite, only two were priced shorter than 5.0 and just two finished in the first three, and Packing Smart looks likely to attract stronger market support than any of them.

Hayes is hardly alone in finding the assignment difficult, either. Since 2006/07, just 27 of 545 Class 4 newcomers have won over Happy Valley’s 1,200 meters, a strike rate of 5 percent, compared to 138 from 1,674 over the same distance on Sha Tin’s turf, or 8.2 percent.

On the jockey front, Purton has proved particularly effective with these Valley debutants. Since Hayes returned in 2020, the champion jockey has ridden five winners from 24 Class 4 newcomers over the course and distance, a strike rate of 20.8 percent. All other jockeys combined have managed just 10 wins from 249 rides, or 4 percent.

Class 4 Debutants at Sprint Trips Since 2006/07 — Ranked by Win Strike Rate 

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