Investors are paying attention to HSBC’s (0005) net interest income and buyback policy ahead of its 2026 third-quarter results on Tuesday, with analysts forecasting its pre-tax profit to rise by 32.9 percent year on year to US$9.7 billion (HK$75.66 billion).
According to consensus forecasts from multiple brokerages, HSBC’s third-quarter revenue will reach US$18.93 billion, up 6.34 percent, with net interest income expected to increase 32.23 percent to US$11.9 billion.
But operating expenses are expected to fall 12.38 percent to US$8.85 billion, while expected credit losses are anticipated to reach US$1.05 billion, up 5 percent.
Third-quarter earnings per share are expected to be 42 US cents, and shareholders can expect a quarterly dividend of 10 US cents, unchanged from the previous year.
On the buyback policy, Goldman Sachs expects HSBC to announce a US$500 million share buyback in the third quarter, down from US$1 billion in the second quarter, reflecting negative impacts on other comprehensive income from continued loan growth, rising rates, and a steeper yield curve.
Goldman Sachs said HSBC’s net interest income from banking operations will be the market’s focus, expecting it to rise 3 percent quarter on quarter, supported by higher rates at quarter-end, increased calendar days in the period, and continued balance sheet growth.
It said after the recent Fed rate hike, the rate outlook has become increasingly constructive, and a steeper yield curve should support structural hedge reinvestment yields and balance sheet repricing. The bank raised HSBC's 2026-2028 banking net interest income forecasts by 0.3 percent, 1 percent, and 1 percent, respectively, above market expectations.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that it lowered HSBC's target price from HK$193 to HK$192, maintained the London target price at 1,860 pence, and rated it "Buy."
JPMorgan forecasts HSBC’s third-quarter revenue to grow 7 percent, and adjusted profit before tax to grow 11 percent.
It expects another strong quarter for the wealth management business, although risk sentiment is softer, noting that the bank has said it has not seen any significant impact from China’s tightening measures on client fund flows or new client acquisition.
Looking ahead, JPMorgan said higher rates should support net interest income, and it expects sustainable business volume growth and asset quality. HSBC may also see growth in earnings per share in the medium term, benefiting from structural growth themes such as Asian wealth management, capital market activity, and yuan internationalization.
