WHO warning over mortality study

World Health Organization officials have warned countries not to let their guard down after Covid-19 mortality rate estimates reported by a University of Hong Kong study were lower than its current estimate of 3.5 percent.

WHO's technical lead for Covid-19, epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove, said the organization is aware of the study from HKU, which is part of its network of collaborating centers.

The study reported a 1.4 percent mortality rate based on its mathematical model.

The research was led by faculty of medicine dean Professor Gabriel Leung, also the founder of the WHO collaborating center for infectious disease epidemiology and control, and jointly conducted with the Harvard T S Chan School of Public Health.

Van Kerkhove said: "The true mortality rate we don't know at this time. What we can say is how many people have died up to this stage. But we do look to our partners to estimate mortality.

"If we take into consideration the estimated number of people that may be infected the mortality rate will go down."

Van Kerkhove, who was part of the international mission to China, said determining the true rate "is a very important value for us."

She added: "Any death is significant and we've mentioned that the steps that will be taken to slow down this virus will save lives."

Population studies are being conducted globally as they are "critical because we really want to understand the extent of infection in the general population," Van Kerkhove told The Standard.

Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, said most of those seriously ill from the infection were aged 40 to 90 and had previous underlying medical conditions.

But very few children appeared to be among confirmed cases.

"I hope fervently that we find there have been millions of people who have been infected asymptomatically and the overall mortality is lower," Ryan said.

"But we have to look to those around you who may be most vulnerable," he said, referring to older people, those with underlying conditions, the refugee population, the undernourished and those who have long-term infections.

"That's what we need to do in order that we put the necessary services to protect and save their lives," Ryan said.

WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus yesterday tweeted that Beijing will contribute US$20 million (HK$156 million) to the organization to support its fight against the epidemic.

Ambassador Chen Xu, permanent representative of China to the UN Office in Geneva, informed Tedros about the mainland's contribution to the WHO anti-coronavirus fund, which would also help "developing countries improve their response capacities and strengthen public health systems."

Tedros has said the WHO needs US$675 million to stop the virus, which has spread to 96 countries and regions with at least 24,853 confirmed cases and 488 deaths. China has at least 80,695 cases and 3,097 deaths so far.

maryann.benitez@singtaonewscorp.com