Senior civil servants' pay hike tipped to be capped amid public backlash over fire inquiry

The annual pay trend survey results for about 170,000 civil servants are expected to be released soon, with sources suggesting the net pay trend indicator for senior civil servants may exceed 4 percent – significantly higher than the figures for middle and lower ranks – sparking opposition.

While the net pay trend indicator is not a direct reflection of the final pay rise, it serves as an important reference for the government. According to usual practice, the government consults staff sides after receiving the survey results, with the Chief Executive and the Executive Council making the final decision based on six factors including Hong Kong's economic conditions, changes in the cost of living, the government's fiscal position, the net pay trend indicator, staff demands and civil servant morale.

However, the ongoing fire inquiry into the Tai Po Wang Fuk Court tragedy has exposed long-standing problems across various departments, fueling public anger. If civil servants still receive a pay rise under such circumstances, public backlash is likely.

Secretary for the Civil Service Ingrid Yeung has previously said that while "public perception" is not one of the six factors, it can be reflected through "civil servant morale," meaning negative public sentiment triggered by the fire inquiry will be taken into consideration.

Sources indicate the net pay trend indicator for senior civil servants is tipped to exceed 4 percent, while middle and lower ranks are looking at about 2 percent. Political observers believe such a wide gap would create the perception of "fattening the top, starving the bottom," and with the fire inquiry and uncertain economic outlook, the government is unlikely to follow the indicator fully.

A source familiar with government thinking said that with the final inquiry report still months away, discussing civil service pay at this time will inevitably be swayed by public sentiment, and the final pay rise – especially for senior ranks – is certain to be lower than the net pay trend indicator.

In 2024, the net pay trend indicators for senior, middle and lower ranks were 4.01 percent, 4.32 percent and 5.47 percent respectively, but the government ultimately approved a flat 3 percent pay rise for all.

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