For many decades the highly respected and prestigious American think tank The Pew Research Center has been monitoring public opinion about nations and their leaders. Its poll covers 45,000 people in 37 countries. The United States used to lead its rankings year after year, but not any more. Views of America are increasingly less favorable while opinions of China are steadily improving. Its latest report says its sample has “confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to do the right thing regarding world affairs” and “China is now seen more positively than the US in 25 countries, and more people have confidence in Xi than US President Donald Trump in 22 countries.”
What a shame, you might think, that trust in the United States, which took 250 years to be built up, is suddenly being wasted away. The sad truth is that one man, Trump no less, is shredding his country’s global reputation as he staggers from one bad policy to yet another worse one. He has lost the political friendship of Europe, started a totally unnecessary and unwinnable war against Iran, demonized China in the minds of most Americans, caused upheaval in global trade, tried – and failed – to bully Canada, and now is undermining America’s greatest asset, the dollar. And who benefits from America’s antics? China of course, as I think the whole world now agrees.
How this reversal of American influence, credibility and prestige will play out is hard to say but the portents are not good and one thing is certain – the entire world will be affected by America’s decline.
And it is very doubtful indeed that Trump’s successor, whoever he or she might be, will be able to reverse the damage done by his administration. Trust, once lost, is not easily regained. And other countries are noticing America’s diminished status as prime ministers and presidents who once deferred to Washington are establishing new allegiances. In this regard Canada is the prime example. It has refused to be bullied and intimidated by Trump and has set an example for other countries to follow.
The United States is also backsliding domestically. Corruption and cronyism, widening inequality, and democratic gridlock are making the America model much less appealing. Meanwhile, the independence of the judiciary is constantly – and shamefully – being undermined.
Historians argue that America’s decline is just part and parcel of the unstoppable tide of history. The rise and fall of powerful empires, they say, is never-ending, and the United States is still in the process of responding to the 9/11 attack on New York’s Twin Towers 25 years ago. War after war has ensued – first in Afghanistan, then in Iraq and now in Iran. This American obsession with exacting revenge on its enemies may well last a generation. It’s a tragedy of course, but tragedy is often the price of obsession.
Meanwhile, the whole world must suffer the costs of America’s latest war. And what of the dollar? It is wobbling in response to Trump’s erratic behavior. He even threatened to use armed force to compel countries to buy US Treasury securities. “We have many types of intervention ... The ultimate intervention is our military. And, uh, if we have to use that, we will.”
No wonder then that China has halved its holdings of US Treasuries, from US$1.2 trillion (HK$9.36 trillion) in 2017 to US$630 billion today. No wonder also that Holland, France and Germany – and no doubt many others, just secretly – have been repatriating their gold from storage in the US.
The reality is that, because of Trump’s antics, nations, companies and private investors are diversifying their assets and reducing their exposure to the US dollar. It may be bad for America but, looking on the bright side, the end result will probably be a more stable system for the world. In that sense I suppose Trump is doing the rest of the world a favor.
Cheng Huan is an author and a senior counsel who practices in Hong Kong
