Morgan Stanley says AI development could require US$10–US$15 trillion over the next decade

Morgan Stanley’s chairman and chief executive, Ted Pick, estimates that artificial intelligence development could require US$10 trillion (HK$78 trillion) to US$15 trillion in capital over the next decade to drive real gross domestic product growth of 50 to 70 basis points at the 5th Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit on Tuesday.

Pick noted that financing the web depends on a complex interdependence among frontier labs, chip makers, infrastructure builders, and energy providers.

Goldman Sachs chairman and chief executive David Solomon added that demand for compute currently exceeds supply, but emphasized that long-term value will likely shift toward the application layer.

AI Bubble Worry Looms 

As markets worry about an AI bubble, Solomon argued that demand for compute currently exceeds supply and that much of the future value will come from the application layer.

Pick also drew parallels to previous technology cycles in 1999 to 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006, and 2008, noting that periodic corrections are "very healthy" and create "a wall of worry" that reminds markets that technology can run ahead of the plan, or vice versa. 

He cautioned that some projects will have poor capital structures and "will eventually not pass the test of time," but this is all part of the innovator's dilemma.

𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗔𝗽𝗽 ↓