John Size has made a habit of starting his seasons slowly before finding his stride in November, and Sunday's double at Sha Tin had a familiar ring to it.
Prime Ace and Beauty Award gave the 13-time champion trainer two wins from 24 November starters, after he managed just four from 65 through September and October.
The pattern is borne out by Size's record over the past 20 seasons, during which his runners have won 129 of 1,554 starts in September and October, a strike rate of 8.3 percent, compared with 14.5 percent in November and 15.4 percent in December.
His combined November-December strike rate has bettered his September-October figure in 17 of those 20 seasons.
What sets Size apart is the extent of that turnaround. Across the past 20 seasons, his strike rate has risen by 5.7 percentage points from September-October to November-July, the largest improvement of any trainer with runners in both periods.
Purton wins more, but Chau beats the odds from wide draws
Few jockeys are riding better than Zac Purton and Jerry Chau Chun-lok, but both face a string of wide draws at Happy Valley on Wednesday.
They're alongside in Race 1, Purton on Fortune Kingo (12) and Chau on Apolar Fighter (11). Purton draws widest again on Lakeshore Hero in Race 2, while Chau has Iron Security (11) in Race 3 and Mr Invincible (12) in Race 6. Purton's Swift Ascend (10) and Chau's Lucky Sam Gor (10) face similar tasks later.
Over the past six seasons at the city circuit, Purton has won 41 of 368 rides from barriers 10 or wider (11.1 percent), against Chau's 17 from 244 (7 percent).
But Chau has beaten market expectations: his 17 wins compare with roughly 12 expected by starting prices, while Purton's 41 fall short of an expected 52.
This season, Purton has two wins from eight such rides; Chau has none from 10, although three finished in the first three.
Valley newcomers face double trouble from wide gates
Seventeen horses will make their first Happy Valley appearance on Wednesday after racing at Sha Tin, and seven face the added challenge of drawing barrier 10 or wider.
Across the past 10 seasons, only 175 of 2,952 horses won on their first Valley start after racing at Sha Tin, a strike rate of 5.9 percent compared with 9 percent for those already familiar with the track.
The record is even worse from wide draws, as newcomers drawn between one and six won 115 of 1,514 starts (7.6 percent), compared with just 21 of 707 (3 percent) from barrier 10 or wider.
Fortune Kingo, Kingman Reef, Steadfast Fort, Mr Invincible, Mask Warrior, Sonic Liner and Nautical Force all face that obstacle on Wednesday.
Three of them, Steadfast Fort, Mr Invincible and Mask Warrior, have raced only once or twice in Hong Kong, and experience is another factor worth considering. Over the same 10 seasons, horses making their Valley debut after no more than two starts at Sha Tin won just 26 of 1,050 attempts, a strike rate of 2.5 percent, compared to the 5.9 percent for all first-time Valley visitors.
