There is no shortage of class in Sunday's Group 3 Sa Sa Ladies' Purse (1,800m), but whoever starts favorite will be trying to end a run of 12 consecutive editions without a winning market leader.
Numbers resumes for his five-year-old campaign looking to establish himself among Hong Kong's leading middle-distance horses, while stablemate and former Derby winner Massive Sovereign comes off a last-start victory and reunites with Zac Purton.
Former champion griffin Sky Jewellery is well placed under the handicap conditions and tackles 1,800 meters for the first time, while Pierre Ng Pang-chi's Le Zonda looks to bounce back after his bid for a fourth straight win came unstuck.
Four favorites won between 2006 and 2013, the last being Endowing at $3.80 for John Size and Tye Angland, but none has succeeded since.
The beaten favorites include Glorious Forever, second at $1.60 in 2018, and Massive Sovereign, sixth at $2.40 in 2024.
Six of those 12 favorites still made the first three, and only three carried topweight.
Ladies' Purse has a habit of going to the wire
The Sa Sa Ladies' Purse has regularly kept the judge busy, with 17 of the past 22 editions decided by half a length or less, including 14 by no more than a neck.
Between 2006 and 2025, 75 percent of Ladies' Purse winners prevailed by half a length or less, compared with 50.1 percent in other Sha Tin turf races over 1,800 meters.
One memorable finish came in 2018, when Time Warp held off his younger brother Glorious Forever by a neck despite conceding 17 pounds. Encountered edged Happy Together by a short head last year.
The barrier draw throws up another curiosity. In nine editions run on the C+3 course since 2016, none of the 45 runners drawn in gates one to five has won.
All nine winners started from barrier six or wider, where Numbers (six), Beauty Joy (nine), Sky Jewellery (12) and Speed Dragon (eight) have drawn this year.
Yet in 61 other C+3 races over the same distance, inside gates had a better strike rate, 10.2 percent against 6.2 percent.
Topweights struggle in the Sa Sa Ladies' Purse
Beauty Joy has carried 135 pounds in three editions of the Sa Sa Ladies' Purse and finished second, seventh and ninth, each time beaten by a horse carrying just 115.
The ten-year-old shoulders the same weight on Sunday, trying to become the first topweight to win since Viva Macau carried 133 pounds under Zac Purton in 2008.
None has succeeded in the 17 editions since. In fact, only one of 41 runners carrying 129 pounds or more has won during that period: Time Warp under 131 in 2018.
Numbers receives six pounds from Beauty Joy but still carries 129, a weight that has produced no winners from seven starters since 2006. He would be the heaviest winner since Time Warp, while four of the past five winners carried 115 or less.
The six-pound weight advantage has helped others before, however. Vaugirard in 2010 and Southern Legend in 2019 both won carrying six pounds less than the topweight, while Happy Together received the same allowance from Beauty Joy last year and finished second.
