Chad Schofield’s gamble on Tempted paid off at a wet Randwick, but Shane Dye says Ka Ying Rising would still win The Everest nine times out of 10.
Well done to Tempted and Chad Schofield for beating Ka Ying Rising and Zac Purton in The Everest on Saturday. It was a terrific ride and a terrific win, but I don’t believe it makes her the better horse.
As I said last week, if Chad drew an inside barrier he could ride Tempted closer to the lead, rather than letting her settle back in the field the way she has in her recent races. He drew barrier one, he rode her handy and he won. He gambled and it came off.
Sometimes jockeys go out to try not to lose a race rather than to win it. Chad went out to win it, and what he did could easily have backfired. Tempted was the second favorite and was seen as the only realistic chance of beating a $1.04 favorite. If she had been ridden closer and run out of petrol, everybody would have been asking why he changed her pattern in the biggest race of the year.
Chad showed real conviction when it counted. Between the 600m and the 400m Tempted ran 10.84 seconds, the fastest 600-400 meter split of any horse in the race, which took her from fourth to second and set up the win.
She had plenty go her way, too. It started with the barrier, but she also got the rain-affected track she loves, and her runs came at exactly the right time. The field opened up for her on the point of the turn, so she never got held up for a stride.
The wet track helped her a lot, and it disadvantaged Ka Ying Rising. I wasn’t convinced going into the race that he would handle a rain-affected surface, and after Saturday I’m even less convinced.
I think it was in Zac’s head, too. Ka Ying Rising and Zac put together a 21-race winning streak by putting the pressure on rather than being dictated to, but on Saturday I believe Zac was conscious of saving the horse’s energy on the wet ground. Then five horses pushed up on his inside. In fairness to Zac, nobody saw that coming, and no speed map looked anything like it. After about 300 meters he was six wide with no cover. Once you’re six wide, there are no good options.
That took away Ka Ying Rising’s best asset, which is taking rivals out of their comfort zone. At Sha Tin he dictates the race. On Saturday he was dictated to.
Even so, Racing NSW data shows Ka Ying Rising traveled 7.3 meters further than Tempted. That, in racing terms, is three or four lengths. He did that on ground he doesn’t like, with everything going wrong, and one stride past the post he was in front.
Switch the barriers and Ka Ying Rising wins, and even from the same barriers, if you ran the race 10 times, I think he would win nine of them.
I’ve heard somebody say Tempted is now the best sprinter in the world. I’m not sure what planet they live on. If that’s the case, why is Ka Ying Rising already odds-on favorite for next year’s Everest?
He doesn’t go as well in Australia as he does in Hong Kong, but I want to see him back for round three against Tempted. I just hope he gets a good track this time.
Maybe before then, Tempted could come for a rematch on Ka Ying Rising’s home turf at Sha Tin? Now that would be exciting.
This article first appeared in Idol Horse as "Zac Purton's Ka Ying Rising ride in The Everest: Shane Dye's take".
