'Very high' odds of war over Taiwan

A top Republican in the United States Congress says the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan "are very high," after a US general caused consternation with a memo that warned that America would fight China in the next two years.

General Mike Minihan, who heads the Air Mobility Command, wrote to the leadership of its roughly 110,000 members, saying: "My gut tells me we will fight in 2025."

He added that both the United States and Taiwan will hold presidential elections in 2024, potentially creating an opportunity for China to take military action.

"The odds are very high that we could see a conflict with China and Taiwan and the Indo Pacific," said Republican Mike McCaul, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the House of Representatives.

He added that, in his judgment, if China failed to take control of Taiwan bloodlessly, "they are going to look at a military invasion."

However, Representative Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said he disagreed with Minihan's assessment and that war with China is "highly unlikely."