A data leak from Russia's state statistics agency Rosstat indicates that, according to official figures, more than 450,000 Russians have been killed in the war in Ukraine, making the conflict the fourth most common cause of death in Russia since 2022.
The Belarus Cyber Partisans and Silent Crow hacking groups hit Rosstat with a cyberattack on October 29 and November 1, stealing data on Russia's economy, demographics and wartime losses.
Russia has not officially disclosed battlefield losses since September 2022. Rosstat's figures would make the war Russia's deadliest conflict since World War II, far exceeding the 13,000 Soviet troops killed in the nine-year Soviet-Afghan War.
"This is the most significant leak of data when it comes to Russian casualties," Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs told The Moscow Times. "I think it's established as a fact that the war has never been more deadly than it is right now."
Figures likely underestimate total losses
The Silent Crow figure includes civilians killed in airstrikes and Ukraine's 2024 incursion into Russia's Kursk region. The total is likely higher as it excludes soldiers missing in action and foreign fighters.
The figures align with other assessments. The British Defense Ministry said in early September that over half a million people had died fighting for Russia, with casualties potentially as high as 1.5 million including the wounded.
Since the full-scale invasion, 6.2 Russians have been killed for every square kilometer of territory gained. Some 72 per cent of deaths were registered in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic.
Ethnic republics bear disproportionate toll
The leak supports research showing Russia's ethnic republics have suffered disproportionately, with major cities like Moscow registering a smaller share of casualties than their populations would suggest.
Kluge said the deaths represent around half a per cent of Russia's working-age population, which may have little economic impact, but the main significance is political. "You cannot say Russia is winning this war if it is losing population at this rate," he said.
