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Democrats enter the final week of the US midterm campaign eyeing a congressional takeover that could reshape Donald Trump’s presidency, as anger over inflation and the Iran war forces Republicans to defend seats deep in their heartland.
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Polls show a substantial and widening Democratic advantage, while Republican campaign groups have shifted millions of dollars into states once considered safely conservative -- a remarkable reversal ahead of the November 3 vote.
The election could transform the final two years of Trump's term, as well as producing bitter disputes over the results and setting the stage for the race to succeed the president in 2028.
A Democratic House would stall Trump's legislative agenda and wield subpoena powers to investigate his administration, family business dealings and conduct of the Iran war.
Winning back the Senate would also let Democrats block Trump's judicial and cabinet nominees.
"We're on the verge of taking back control of the House of Representatives," Hakeem Jeffries, who leads Democrats in the lower chamber of Congress, told CNN.
"I don't want to attach any particular percentage point other than making it clear it's very likely we're going to get this done."
All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are being contested, alongside governorships in 36 states. Democrats need only to flip three House seats and four in the Senate for unilateral control of Congress.
- Republican heartland -
The US war with Iran, launched in February, has driven fuel costs sharply higher, adding to the squeeze on voters from tariffs and persistent inflation.
Trump's approval rating has meanwhile sunk to levels rarely seen by a president.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll last week put it at 31 percent, his lowest across both terms, while a New York Times/Siena survey found an 11-point Democratic lead among likely voters.
The electoral map tells a similarly stark story.
Republicans are fighting competitive Senate races in Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska -- all states Trump won by double digits in 2024.
In an extraordinary change of priorities, the main group financing Republican Senate advertising diverted resources from North Carolina to Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
Democratic candidates have meanwhile enjoyed formidable fundraising, although Republican outside groups have spent heavily to defend their seats, aided by hundreds of millions of dollars from billionaire Elon Musk.
A redistricting battle has also given Republicans an advantage in some House seats, while Trump's campaign rallies aim to mobilize loyal supporters who often stay home when he is not on the ballot.
- Disputed verdict? -
More than 23 million early ballots had been cast by the weekend -- up from around 15 million at the comparable point in 2022 -- with habitual Republican voters lagging their Democratic counterparts in several states.
But there are fears the contest may not end with the counting of ballots.
Trump's repeated, unsubstantiated claims of election fraud have prompted Democrats and voting-rights organizations to prepare legal teams and observers for disputes or federal interference.
The administration says federal election monitors will follow the law and has denied plans to send troops or immigration agents to polling stations.
Whatever the result, the vote also marks the beginning of the long political transition toward 2028, when the constitution bars Trump from seeking another elected term.
It will offer an early test of whether the Republican movement he remade can thrive beyond his presidency -- and also which Democrats emerge to challenge his most likely successors, with Vice President JD Vance best positioned so far to lead the post-Trump party.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson told Fox News on Sunday his party would be standing on the promises it had delivered on since 2024.
"Every voter has to ask themselves a simple question: which candidate is best for me and my family, my children, my aging parents?" he said.
"In every one of these cases, the Republican is offering commonsense solutions and a steady hand at the wheel. And the Democrats are becoming increasingly crazy."
AFP
