Trump boost turns to baggage

Donald Trump has leaped forward to become the first to declare his candidacy for the 2024 US presidential election - but a big question looms.

Having gone through a series of electoral setbacks, the Republicans must have started to realize that a Trump factor is not necessarily a blessing.

Rather, it could be a curse when it comes to an election involving all Americans, not just the Republicans.

In this light, Trump's declaration of his candidacy is thought to have delighted the Democrats more than anyone else.

By now, the evidence of a Trump burden should have become clear to the Grand Old Party.

Although it regained control of the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections, it is hardly a victory for the GOP.

Its control of the House is wafer-thin and a handful of Republicans disagreeing on some GOP-preferred issues could upset the majority.

And then there is its failure to recapture the Senate.

After the non-appearance of the much-heralded red wave in the mid-terms, the Trump factor has also been quickly recognized as a drag rather than a driver.

A major concern facing the Republican Party is that, although Trump has the support of die-hard followers within the party, the former president's personality has more than once helped to galvanize opposition by pushing undecided voters over to the rival camp.

This dilemma was revealed in the 2020 presidential election and repeated in the mid-terms.

Many Americans like the former president, but more dislike him. And Republicans will have to free themselves from that tiny spot between the rock and the hard place if they hope to make a breakthrough in 2024.

In 2016, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the electoral college but lost to her in the popular vote.

As Democratic-leaning Californians move elsewhere, including Arizona and Texas, to escape California's high taxes, their relocation is also changing the color of these traditionally red states.

In the mid-terms, Arizona elected a Democrat as its governor whereas Texas, despite re-electing its Republican governor, saw a surge in votes for his Democrat opponent.

It is clear that the matrix is shifting further from Trump.

As long as he figures in American elections, the Republicans will need to worry about the former president who, after bringing the GOP a technical surprise in the electoral college in 2016, is now considered baggage for them.

A dilemma for Republicans is that they cannot get rid of this baggage readily because Trump still enjoys sizeable support within the party.

Can the Republicans find an alternative? They ought to.

For example, re-elected Florida governor Ron DeSantis is a probable alternative, but he has not yet revealed any intention to run at this stage.

Should DeSantis run, a Trump-DeSantis showdown in the GOP primaries would severely split the party.

Another problem is that Trump would still likely run as an independent even if defeated in the primaries.

There is an old saying that, while two dogs fight for a bone, a third one runs away with it.

This may be the Republican play script for 2024.