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The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has warned that a broad area of low pressure, currently bringing unsettled weather near Luzon, could gradually develop into a tropical cyclone over the central South China Sea in the next two to three days.
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If it intensifies, the system, which would be the first tropical cyclone of the year in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, will be named Wutip, meaning "butterfly."
Satellite images taken at 8am on June 8 showed that the northern South China Sea and Guangdong coast were under the influence of an anticyclone aloft, resulting in generally fine and very hot weather. The high-pressure system is expected to maintain sunny and hot conditions across southern China from Monday to Wednesday (June 9–11).
Meanwhile, the low-pressure area near Luzon, combined with moisture from the southwest monsoon, is creating favorable conditions for convective activity.
Forecasters noted that multiple computer models suggest the system will gradually organize over the central South China Sea in the coming days, with a higher likelihood of tracking toward Hainan Island and Guangdong’s western coast later this week. However, there remains a chance it could shift toward eastern Guangdong instead.
The HKO pointed out that tropical cyclones approaching from the west typically bring more severe weather to Hong Kong than those from the east.
In its early stages, the low-pressure system may feature multiple convective centers, leading to variable weather patterns depending on which center dominates. Subtle changes in atmospheric conditions could influence the storm’s eventual path and intensity, potentially affecting Hong Kong’s weather later in the week, the Observatory added.
(Marco Lam)
