Iran’s internal discord a key hurdle to a lasting ceasefire | Cash Call | Andrew Wong

The New York Times, citing four senior Iranian officials, recently revealed deep political divisions within Iran’s leadership as the country faces mounting pressure from the US naval blockade and a rapidly deteriorating economy. According to the report, during the final stage of US-Iran negotiations, President Masoud Pezeshkian issued an ultimatum to Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warning that if hardliners rejected the proposed memorandum of understanding with Washington, he and his entire cabinet would resign immediately.

Adding to the pressure, Central Bank governor Abdolnasser Hemmati reportedly submitted an alarming assessment of Iran’s financial situation to the country’s top leadership. He warned that the US naval blockade had effectively halted Iran’s ability to legally export oil, and that if the situation persisted, the country’s reserves of food and critical medical supplies could be exhausted by the end of August. Faced with mounting pressure from Pezeshkian and other senior officials, Khamenei ultimately adopted a more pragmatic stance.

In a written statement, he said that while he remained opposed in principle to reaching an MoU with the United States, he would authorize negotiations provided they received approval from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Although Tehran has officially denied the New York Times report, the existence of a long-standing divide between Iran’s moderate and hardline factions is well established. Washington’s strategy has consistently been to engage the moderate camp led by Pezeshkian in the hope of securing meaningful concessions. Given that the two sides had previously signed an MoU, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly argued that Iran is ultimately seeking a negotiated settlement.

However, this also explains why Washington has been unable to resolve the security crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran once again announcing a complete closure of the waterway yesterday. The hardline faction, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has long rejected any negotiations with the United States. Driven by ideological and religious convictions, many within the IRGC are prepared to resist rather than compromise. Moreover, they continue to possess the capability to conduct asymmetric attacks against commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the Trump administration faces enormous challenges in restoring lasting security to the strategic waterway.

More broadly, the prospect of a permanent ceasefire between the United States and Iran remains highly unrealistic. Trump may be able to negotiate with, or extract concessions from, Iran’s moderate political leadership under Pezeshkian, but bringing the IRGC’s hardline establishment into a comprehensive and lasting agreement is an entirely different challenge – one that is, in practical terms, close to impossible.

Andrew Wong is a veteran independent commentator

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