Sense of caution on birth-rate projection

Although it may be surreal to read the latest government estimate that Hong Kong's population has rebounded by over 150,000 people to edge near 7.5 million, this number should be accepted as reliable in view of the long-standing credibility of the Census and Statistics Department.

An ability to produce and publish credible data is a major asset of the SAR.

It is believed that officials have exercised the greatest degree of caution to make sure government data are accurate enough for every interested party to refer to.

Excluding the mobile population, the number of usual residents is currently just under 7.25 million.

The latest set of population estimates - whether growth in the past year or projection for the next 20 years - are rather upbeat.

However, they may look to be too good to be optimistic without feeling a sense of caution.

The birth rate, in particular.

Statisticians seem to be confident that women in the city will be willing to give birth to more babies than they have been in recent years. A question is that they did not explain how they had arrived at this new-found confidence.

I am sure the reasons must be really interesting and it's not only University of Hong Kong population policy expert Paul Yip Siu-fai who would like to know - I want to know too.

Could they be assuming that the social and economic environment will continue to improve and immigrants, mainly from the mainland, will be more willing to have children than their local counterparts?

Yesterday this question of low birth rate that the Census and Statistics Department is predicting to rebound as soon as 2026 also captured the attention of Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu at one of his pre-policy address workshops.

Admitting that society is concerned about the low birth rate, Lee promised that his administration would study the issue.

Perhaps he could readily obtain an answer from the director of the Census and Statistics Department, who must have considered the relevant factors before arriving at the conclusion that the birth rate would rebound to 0.9 child per woman in 2026 rather than falling further to 0.6 child per woman in five to six years as chillingly warned by the HKU academic.

Population growth can be natural and non-natural.

Hong Kong may have a highly dense population but it is relatively small in terms of the number.

It is foreseeable that it can be readily expanded with policy support from the mainland even if natural population growth falls short of the target.

The population projection may explain why authorities are determined to proceed with the gigantic land reclamation project off Lantau and develop northern New Territories into a new metropolitan district.

The population projection matches plans to build tens of thousands of flats in both areas - enough to cater for a population of more than eight million.

Whether or not the birth rate will rebound as projected, policymakers have a masterplan envisioning that Hong Kong will have more than eight million people.