Will HK doom-monger be proved wrong?

China's good friend and Morgan Stanley's former Asian head Stephen Roach says it pains him to declare Hong Kong is now over.

It is not the first time that someone has been so gloomy about the city.

The last time Hong Kong was declared dead dated back to 1995 when US-based Fortune magazine ran a commentary with the alarming title: "The Death of Hong Kong."

But as matters continued to unfold in the first half of the transition to mainland rule, Fortune's prediction turned out to be more alarmist than alarming.

The city was able to demonstrate a level of resilience over the years that proved Fortune was way off the mark.

Will Hong Kong also be able to prove the latest gloom-monger wrong?

It is true that the situation now confronting the city is very different from when the Fortune commentator prematurely passed its verdict.

In the 20-odd years since "The Death of Hong Kong" was published, the city has survived several financial crises.

And it proved to be a period of blessings for the SAR. The Chinese economy was on the rise, with foreign investors - including Roach - queuing to put money into the country.

Prior to the handover, Hong Kong was hit by a brain drain but, as uncertainty over the future eased, many skilled migrants returned to rejoin the booming economy.

The Hang Seng Index, which was in the 15,000 range in July 1997, surged above 30,000 several times during the period.

Public sector finance also strengthened to levels not seen before, thanks to a booming property market.

The first half of the transition was so successful that it was a strong slap in Fortune's face.

Now another gloom-monger has spoken - but can Hong Kong prove him wrong with facts and figures as it did with Fortune?

Compared with time the magazine ran its damning commentary, the mainland faces an economic situation that is vastly different.

As foreign investors join an exodus to reestablish global supply chains elsewhere, China is struggling to keep its economic engine running.

Hong Kong has a new national security law and is about to pass another in accordance with Article 23 of the Basic Law.

Despite concerns voiced by investors, government officials are confident that these laws are making the city safer for the country as well as for foreign investors.

The Hang Seng Index has also returned to 1997 levels.

Meanwhile, Latham & Watkins - one of the world's largest law firms - is reported to be cutting off automatic access to its international databases for its Hong Kong-based lawyers due to data security concerns.

Public finance is in trouble too, with government deficits deepening amid a shrinking reserve.

In contrast to the situation at the time of the Fortune article, Hong Kong is now facing challenges far greater than before in view of the mainland's economy and the city's lukewarm stock and property markets.

When Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po reveals his budget later this month, will he be able to prescribe the right medicine to slap Roach hard in the face?

Fingers crossed.