From self exile to US political pawn

Self-styled whistle-blower and self-proclaimed billionaire Guo Wengui's arrest in New York dominated news headlines, with some commentators saying the arrest was delayed and could have been earlier.

Let's put that aside for now.

What has stunned me the most is the number of victims allegedly involved in the case. If accusations in the indictment papers are proven in court, the story plot would involve a rather common trick that has occurred regularly.

The Guo case is eye-popping because the amount is huge, allegedly involving US$1 billion (HK$7.8 billion).

A few elements would be needed to form such a plot. First of all, there would have to be a celebrity or a key influencer. Then, there must be the elaborate details to cultivate and amass a large number of supporters who, by being followers, tend to believe their icons.

Once a definite number is amassed, it would be time to harvest.

According to the indictment documents, Guo allegedly managed that through unlawful offerings. In one exercise via cryptocurrency platform Himalaya Exchange, he is alleged to have promised so-called H coin with the backing of gold and his personal guarantee.

It would have been difficult for most people to fall for such an incredible trick but, for a follower, the judgment could be different.

So it may be amazing, but not surprising, that a total of US$262 million was raised in that alleged cryptocurrency trick alone.

Is there a feeling of deja vu?

There have been a number of incidents of offerings of "funny" stocks that were marginalized and snapped up after listing to become stars of the moment, only to tumble suddenly as a result of insiders taking profit at high points.

Also in recent years, as live-streamed sales gained popularity in the mainland, hiring top influencers to live-stream products was able to perform magic sales, with these icons bagging a fortune big enough to catch the attention of tax authorities.

The next question is: who is paying them sky-high commissions?

The financial aspect aside, Guo's arrest was made at a time that could also be politically convenient for both Republicans and Democrats.

Since fleeing China to escape a crackdown in 2014 and formally seeking asylum in the US in 2017, Guo has cultivated an image of himself as a fierce critic of the Chinese Communist Party.

US politicians, though doubtful of the source of Guo's wealth, chose to maintain the status quo in face of Beijing's demand for his repatriation.

In order to survive as a self exile, Guo knew he would have to make himself valuable in the Sino-US conflicts. But now that the setup for conflicts has taken shape, his self-styled criticism of the CCP has ceased to be relevant.

Rather, Donald Trump's renewed bid for the US presidency has irked the established elites in both the Republican and Democratic parties.

When Guo stands trial later this year or next, will his ties with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon or probably other Trump associates be played up by CNN as the presidential election is about to hit the home stretch?

Stay tuned.