Hong Kong’s potential private residential units drop below 100,000 for the first time in four years, with completed unsold stock and land reserves under construction declining, Ricacopr Properties said it indicates significant destocking progress by developers.
Hong Kong’s potential supply of private residential units over the next three to four years is estimated to fall to 96,000 units, according to the Housing Bureau's second-quarter figures as of the end of June.
Ricacorp Properties’ head of research, Derek Chan Hoi-chiu, said the change signals a gradual shift from an inventory peak toward a supply-demand balance in the primary market. He pointed out that the phased easing of inventory pressure and the narrowing of supply at the source have supported property prices.
Meanwhile, Chan noted that the aggressive price wars with substantial discounts seen previously among developers are unlikely to reappear. Instead, new project pricing will return to market-aligned levels, providing tangible support for Hong Kong property prices to remain stable.
However, Chan believes that the sharp reduction in land reserves under construction to 16,000 units signals a potential risk of a supply gap in the primary market in three to five years. Given the highly lagged nature of land development, he said the authorities should maintain strategic resolve in land policy and must not interrupt long-term land sale plans due to short-term market fluctuations.
Chan suggested that the government should adhere to a balanced and orderly land creation mechanism, steadily releasing land to avoid future supply-demand imbalances. He said that this can ensure Hong Kong's property market and property prices can maintain a healthy long-term development trajectory.
