Hong Kong GDP Q2 2026 estimates to grow 4.3 percent, lower than market expectations

Hong Kong's gross domestic product is forecast to rise 4.3 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2026, lower than the expected 4.9 percent, with the growth mainly attributed to buoyant external trade and resilient domestic demand.

According to data released by the Census and Statistics Department on Friday, the growth is lower than the 5.9 percent increase in the first quarter.

On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP decreased by 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2026 when compared with the first quarter, marking the first quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2022.

Private consumption expenditure, the major GDP component, increased by 2.9 percent, compared with the 4.9 percent rise in the first quarter. Government consumption expenditure rose 0.5 percent, which is 2.3 percentage points lower than the last quarter.

Total exports of goods increased 28.8 percent, accelerating further from the growth of 23.8 percent in the first quarter. Over the same period, imports of goods measured grew by 29.3 percent, compared with the increase of 29.9 percent in the first quarter.

Exports of services rose by 3.4 percent after the increase of 3.3 percent in the first quarter. Imports of services increased by 2.8 percent, compared with the increase of 3.8 percent in the first quarter.

Looking ahead, a government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy is expected to post solid growth continuously in the second half of 2026. Merchandise exports will benefit from global demand for artificial intelligence-related products, while exports of services should benefit from sustained growth in visitor arrivals and steady demand for financial and business services. Growth in domestic demand will also be supported by stable labor market conditions and solid business and consumer sentiment.

The spokesman also noted that the government will monitor the external environment closely, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, uncertainties surrounding the United States' monetary policy and trade protectionist measures among major advanced economies.

𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗔𝗽𝗽 ↓