Centaline Group founder Shih Wing-ching said he expects Hong Kong's property prices to increase up to 41.85 percent from the lowest in March, boosted by the expected US dollar depreciation and rate cuts.
The home price-tracking Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) is anticipated to reach 191.34 points, but actual increase will depend on the sustainability of this upward trend, with Shih predicting the CCL Index could reach 250 points by 2031.
This projection implies a six-year growth period from 2025 to 2031, marking an 85 percent increase from a low of 134.89 points.
He explained that the rise largely results from the expected depreciation of the US dollar, which will also have a downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar, making property prices more likely to escalate significantly.
In addition, the US rates are expected to remain low to stimulate the economy and alleviate its debt burden, and if Hong Kong's interest rates decline alongside US rates, more capital will flow into the real estate market, Shih pointed out.
Moreover, Hong Kong's economy is gradually adapting to the tensions resulting from US-China relations. Citizens' ability to afford housing will gradually increase, providing substantial support for rising prices.
In addition, due to the previous sluggish real estate market, many developers have reduced land investment and slowed construction, resulting in a severe shortage of future housing supply. Shih forecast that once the housing supply precipitates, property prices would soar.
