Registration and Electoral Office uses erroneous voter estimates for three years

A government watchdog found that the Registration and Electoral Office has been using a problematic method in calculating voter registration statistics as early as 2020.

The discovery came after a local media inquiry in July last year, in which the office was informed of voter registration statistics for recent years, including the statistics categorized by age group.

The office first rejected the request, saying it had not kept a record of the statistics based on age group. Yet the media quoted the office providing such statistics during LegCo meetings and, for a second time, requesting the office to provide the information as required under Hong Kong's Code on Access to Information.

The office eventually replied that it is reviewing its estimation method and, thus, unable to provide such numbers.

The media then lodged a complaint with the Office Of The Ombudsman, with the government watchdog's investigation revealing that the electoral office has noted irregularities with its voter estimates since 2020 but has kept using the same estimation method.

The Ombudsman said the office's method first calculated the "estimated number of eligible voters" by multiplying the "estimated population figure" by the "percentage of permanent residents holding identity cards." It then calculated the "estimated voter registration rate" by dividing the "actual number of voters" by the "estimated number of eligible voters."

The method has resulted in the estimation of voter registration in certain age groups exceeding 100 percent, said the Ombudsman, adding that the office subsequently decided to adjust the estimation manually to cater to what it called a "slight error."

The office continued to adopt the same estimation method until last year and decided to review the method after finding the statistics irrational, said the Ombudsman.

The watchdog's investigation concluded that the office was not in err to decline revealing such statistics due to a review of its estimation method, yet it found inadequacies in the office's handling of inquiries.

It noted that the office should have provided all relevant information regarding the media outlet's inquiry in its first response to avoid confusion.

The office should also follow up on the request for access to information after it has completed its review, said the watchdog.