Hong Kong's Covid-19 infections to drop significantly by late-March: HKU

Hong Kong's infection figures will drop considerably by the end of March, given that existing social distancing measures remain in place, researchers from the University of Hong Kong projected. 

The daily caseload reported by authorities will also fall below 1,000 by late April and below 100 by mid-May, according to the latest update of the team's mathematics modeling. 

As of Monday (Mar 14), around 3.58 million people are estimated to be infected. The research team expected the final size of the fifth wave to be approximately 4.48 million, making up 60.5 percent of Hong Kong's 7.4 million population. 

The team also predicted the final death toll to be about 5,102. 

The team continued that two oral Covid-19 antiviral drugs – Molnupiravir and Paxlovid – have become available last week and this week and are expected to reduce hospitalizations and deaths by 30 percent and 89 percent, respectively. 

"We optimistically assume the stated antiviral efficacies are the same for both unvaccinated and vaccinated patients (i.e., multiplicative with vaccine protection). However, the clinical trials of both antivirals were conducted among unvaccinated patients only, and their efficacy among vaccinated patients should be closely monitored," the team added.

The team also estimated the onset-to-death interval for elderly home residents aged 70 or above to be eight days, and that for elderly in the same age group in general to be 10.5 days from the data of 37 deaths with the date of symptoms onset. 

As of last Friday (Mar 11), 91 percent of elderly homes reported outbreaks, 31 percent of residents were confirmed with infections, and death reported from elderly homes accounted for 58.9 percent of the total deaths in the fifth wave. 

"We assume 90 percent of elderly home residents would receive at least one dose of vaccine by March 18 (Fri), and 90 percent of residents would receive Sinovac vaccine as the first dose after March 4," the team said.