About two years ago, I wrote that the race to 5G is really between countries, not firms.
Today I want to look at the positions of countries leading the 5G race. China, the United States and South Korea are leading 5G research activities.
At this point, their research and development prowess is paving the way for advances in 5G technologies and laying vital groundwork for 5G infrastructure.
The Technology and Innovation Report 2021 compiled by the UN Conference on Trade and Development showed there were 6,828 notable scientific research publications in high-impact journals between 1996 and 2018 that are highly influential in 5G.
Of these, 981 originated from China, 618 from the United States and 469 from the United Kingdom.
The top three affiliations are with Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nokia Bell Labs in New Jersey and the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China.
The 2021 5G patent landscape report by market intelligence firm Iplytics found Chinese led by a wide margin, accounting for over 41 percent of patent families worldwide. South Korean firms own nearly 20 percent and the US 15 percent.
But not all patents are equal as quality and "essentiality" is of critical importance in assessing true 5G leadership. Those patents are known as Standard Essential Patents.
The top five companies in the SEP race are Huawei, Qualcomm, Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung Electronics.
The next dimension on the checklist is product development, and by this measure no country has a particular edge.
Many countries produce the two most important 5G products: network equipment for infrastructures and chipsets for devices.
Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia and ZTE are the four leaders in network equipment.
The major chipmakers are Huawei, Intel, MediaTek, Qualcomm and Samsung Electronics.
Finally the 5G race has strived toward an open market and dynamic ecosystem.
China has built a vibrant 5G ecosystem from device manufacturing to network supply, system integration and maintenance. The country has deployed 961,000 5G base stations and shipped 128 million 5G phones over the past two years.
Its Ministry of Industry and Information Technology says there are more than 10,000 5G applications in various areas, including smart manufacturing, autonomous driving and telemedicine.
South Korea was one of the first to adopt 5G back in 2018. In September 2020, its 5G subscriptions exceeded nine million and are set to hit 40 million by 2025.
Its telecom carriers will invest US$22 billion (HK$171.6 billion) to commercialize 5G technologies such as millimeter wave and standalone versions of 5G networks by the end of this year.
Seoul is fully aware of its limitations of scale and is adopting partnership strategies to keep the edge. It is collaborating with the UK on a jointly funded 3.6 million (HK$33.46 million) competition on a "world-first" project to fund a group of companies working together to accelerate technical solution development to improve power efficiency in Open RAN networks.
On the other hand, the United States has an advantage in 5G-scale economy.
A June 2022 Ericsson Mobility Report says about 195 million 5G subscriptions are expected by 2026, with the technology accounting for 71.5 percent of the total US mobile market by 2029.
In summary, South Korea is ahead based on 5G penetration and will stay ahead because it's a smaller country.
However, China wins if the number of 5G subscribers count and nobody can catch up. It also gets an early start with 5G-enabled factories in the enterprise space.
The United States has emerged as the leader in 5G market economy, spectrum availability and its global-reach business position.
As the race rages on, it remains to be seen which country will win.
Dr Jolly Wong is a policy fellow at the Centre for Science and Policy, University of Cambridge
