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America’s mid-term congressional elections are on November 3 – less than six months away. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives serve a two-year term, which means they must seek reelection every two years.
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The 100 members of the Senate serve a six-year term. This means that every two years, a different batch of the 100 senators, about one third, will have finished their terms and must seek reelection. Some House and Senate members choose to drop out in every election cycle, creating openings for new candidates.
This November’s elections are shaping up to be the most fiercely fought in decades. US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party now has slim majorities in both the House and the Senate.
But recent opinion polls show Trump’s approval rating has sunk to around 35 percent, the lowest ever for him as president. Other polls show his dismal ratings will boost the chances of Democrats winning control of the House and possibly the Senate. A combination of reasons explains why so many voters have soured on Trump just 18 months after electing him for a second term and giving his Republican Party control of Congress.
Trump drove up prices of daily necessities, first with his global tariffs, followed by his war against Iran – even though he promised during his election campaign that he would lower costs and not start wars. The high cost of living, made worse by almost daily jumps in the price of gasoline after Iran blocked the flow of oil by shutting the Strait of Hormuz, is now the top concern among voters. Democrats are using rising inflation and the affordability crisis as election issues to attack their Republican opponents.
They are hammering congressional Republicans for proposing US$1 billion (HK$7.8 billion) of taxpayers’ money to pay for Trump’s ballroom-related expenses. Trump had promised that the ballroom, which he made space for by demolishing the White House East Wing, will be fully funded by donors.
Trump knows Democrats are in a strong position to win control of the House in November. Democrats will likely try to impeach him if they win the House. They will also hold congressional hearings about alleged abuses of power by Trump and his top officials.
That is why Trump has pressured Republican governors to redraw congressional maps in their states to create voting districts with new boundaries that favor Republican candidates. Most Republican governors have complied, even though redistricting is typically done every 10 years after a census, to reflect population changes.
The nine-member US Supreme Court, which has six Trump-friendly judges, last month boosted the chances of Republican candidates by gutting the 1965 Voting Rights Act. The Act prevented racial discrimination by enabling voting districts with Black majorities, giving Black candidates a chance to win congressional seats.
Critics have slammed the Supreme Court for resurrecting 1960s racial discrimination by gutting the Act. Republican governors are using the court’s ruling to redraw congressional maps into districts with White majorities that favor Republicans, lowering the chances of a Democratic landslide victory in November.
Michael Chugani is a longtime journalist who has worked in Hong Kong, the US, and London
