The revised full-year economic growth forecast, to be released in mid-August, will be raised from the initial range, but the growth remains subject to geopolitical developments, US interest rates, and other uncertainties, said Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po.
Chan said in his weekly blog post that the upward revision reflects the stronger-than-expected gross domestic product growth performance in the first half of 2026, rising 5.1 percent year on year. While strong global demand for artificial intelligence products is expected to continue benefiting merchandise exports. Sustained external demand for Hong Kong’s financial and business services, and increased visitor arrivals, will also drive services export growth and bolster local consumption and investment sentiment.
Buoyed by strong external trade and resilient domestic demand, the Hong Kong economy has posted growth for 14 straight quarters. GDP expanded 4.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, with total exports of goods jumping 28.8 percent, while private consumption spending increased at a steady pace of 2.9 percent.
Notably, Chan said the benchmark Hang Seng Index gained about 3,000 points in July, marking the largest single-month gain in nearly two years, a 13 percent increase, adding that average daily turnover has remained above HK$300 billion for two consecutive months.
He mentioned that in the first seven months of 2026, total funds raised in Hong Kong's initial public offering market have already surpassed last year’s full-year total by 13 percent, with a growing number of high-quality technology companies seeking to list in the city. Post-listing refinancing amounts also increased over 20 percent year on year.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong will launch the five-year Chinese Government Bond (CGB) Futures contract on Monday, enabling international investors to leverage their existing trading accounts, practices, and workflows in Hong Kong to execute and settle the relevant contracts in the offshore market.
Chan noted that, as the only offshore market instrument in Hong Kong, CGB futures provide offshore investors with a standardized, exchange-traded, and liquid hedging tool for managing interest rate risk associated with holding Chinese government bonds. He said the development is a major step in promoting Hong Kong as an offshore yuan hub, risk management center, and yuan internationalization, alongside Bond Connect, Swap Connect, and yuan-denominated trade settlement.
