Covid infections have peaked, to dip below 1,000 by late April: HKU

The fifth wave of Covid-19 outbreak in Hong Kong has already peaked last Friday, while the daily infection number is expected to drop below 1,000 starting April 23, according to latest estimations by the University of Hong Kong.

The latest update of a mathematics modeling by HKU also estimated that daily infections will remain below 100 by mid-May, and the tally of the fifth wave will stand at 4.3 million by May 1 with a total of 5,008 deaths. 

Researchers estimated that 1.84 million Hongkongers have been infected as of Monday (Mar 7). 

As the coronavirus has been widely spread in local communities, the study offers four recommendations. 

They included increasing the number of beds in intensive care units and general wards in hospitals massively; widely prescribing oral Covid-19 drugs like Paxlovid and Molnupiravir to high-risk patients, especially the elderly; boosting the vaccination rate of elderly homes; and further tightening the existing social distancing measures. 

If the number of beds for acute Covid-patients offered by the Hospital Authorities can increase by 50 to 90 percent, or by 12,000 to 25,000, the death tally of the fifth wave is expected to drop by 20 to 25 percent to between 3,702 and 3,989. 

If these extra beds cannot be provided today (Mar 8) and are made available only by March 21, the death tally will increase by 3.5 to six percent, according to the study. 

Clinical testing results also showed that applying oral Covid-19 drugs to high-risk patients can effectively lower the hospitalization rate and death rate by 90 and 30 percent, respectively. 

Boosting the vaccination rate targeting residents of elderly care homes remains a top priority, the study pointed out. 

It added that further tightening Covid curbs for one or two weeks should also be considered, like restricting families to go out only once a week for food and supply or requiring all employees to work from home except those who provide emergency services. 

The death figures of the fifth wave can only be reduced by 29 percent if authorities adopt at least three recommendations at once, the study noted.