Xi treads a rocky path to peace

President Xi Jinping lands in Moscow today for a three-day visit.

Russia was the first to reveal the invite that raised speculation about an imminent Xi visit. It was a good while later - last Friday, to be precise - before the Chinese foreign ministry confirmed that Xi would visit Putin from today to Wednesday.

Moscow's unilateral revelation back then may have surprised Beijing.

At that time, Putin was stuck deep in his war quagmire in Ukraine and desperately needed some powerful figure to render him a boost at home and internationally.

But visiting Putin could be an embarrassment.

By coincidence or not, Beijing's announcement of Xi's visit came after Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic ties in a deal brokered by Beijing.

China's diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East has created conditions for moving the trip ahead.

It is reported that Xi will speak to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky afterwards.

However, the Chinese foreign ministry did not include this in the announcement - probably a deliberate omission to avoid raising too much expectation in advance.

Riding on his Middle East breakthrough, Xi goes to Russia as a peacemaker - which means he can keep critics silent on a diplomatic maneuver that could have been viewed by opponents as a tour rendering support for Putin on his ambition in Ukraine.

It would be difficult for the US and Europe to call out Beijing as the accomplice of an aggressor wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes.

No matter whether or not the peace mission will turn out as successfully as the deal between Saudi and Iran, what matters the most to Putin is the single fact that Xi is going to Moscow.

That makes the Russian president feel safe after the his unjust military adventure continues to suffer serious setbacks.

Looking forward, there are three probable outcomes of the "peace-making" trip.

The most ideal would be for Xi to succeed in persuading Putin to unconditionally withdraw his troops from Ukraine, including regions currently occupied by Russian forces in the country's eastern regions and Crimea in the south.

Putin is highly unlikely to agree to this since it would endanger him.

Furthermore, unconditional withdrawal and return of all occupied land to Ukraine - a resolution passed by the UN by an overwhelming majority - was not central to the peace package proposed by Beijing earlier.

Rather, the visit may end with the status quo little changed as the war continues with increased support from Iran for Putin.

This is a more likely outcome since Zelensky has declared steadfastly that territorial integrity is non-negotiable.

Would Ukraine soften its position and accept Russia occupying part of its land in exchange for a peace deal? It is highly doubtful.

The third possible outcome is an escalation in the war if the broker attempt fails and, even worse, Putin dragging China into the quagmire of war.

The chance of this may be less likely as China is cautiously defining itself as a peacemaker.

Alternatively, will Xi go to Moscow with a modified peace proposal? It will be known every soon.