Will the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference step on the gas for China to return to normal after three years of pandemic isolation?

The Politburo met last week, but its post-meeting statement glaringly omitted any reference to the zero or dynamic-zero targets that had been stressed repeatedly for the past three years.

It is clear that Beijing has quietly dropped the controversial policy that has proved devastating to the country.

In China, it is common that policymakers do not explicitly declare an end to some policies.

Likewise here in the SAR, former chief executive Tung Chee-hwa quietly shelved the disputable target of building 85,000 housing units a year - only confirming it when he was confronted by the media.

If the authority stops mentioning anything, it could mean something.

The policy shift in Beijing is rather clear. Perhaps the only thing that is still troubling investors is the uncertainty over whether or not Beijing would be forced to change heart later after seeing an explosion in Covid cases.

In the wake of the experience elsewhere, it is almost certain that people will see an explosion of cases across the country as local governments move aggressively to scale back lockdowns and social distancing restrictions in order to let people go out and economic activities resume.

It is reported that, in many cities including Beijing, the number of infections is already rising rapidly locally.

This is just the beginning and mainland infectious disease experts are expecting the number to keep surging until hitting a peak at the end of the first quarter in 2023 after which the situation will stabilize.

This is an inevitable process that citizens must go through. If the mainland gives up in the middle of the course, it is feared that they will not see the end of the tunnel.

We in Hong Kong and people elsewhere have gone through this critical process and are seeing daylight - even though Hong Kong can follow the example of other places and do more to allow itself to emerge from the pandemic faster than it is currently doing.

The Central Economic Work Conference will be rich in directives and numbers, including an annual GDP target for 2023.

These are useful references. Yet, at the same time, it is crucial to use this opportunity to bolster public confidence that the leadership will not back down and revert to dynamic zero due to high infection figures.

Were that unfortunately to be the situation, confidence would be shattered and it would need even greater efforts for the country to emerge from Covid.

Investors and trading partners want to see more than just the figures that are routinely revealed at the end of each economic work conference.

This time, they want more - thanks to the reform and opening-up policies that China has developed more quickly than many other countries in recent years.

While the impact of the pandemic is temporary, the effect of economic development is long lasting.

So the focus must be firmly locked on economy and nothing else.

Pendulum effect in Covid saga