Tsui blues not as simple as black and white

The Witman Hung Wai-man "party-gate" may have caught the administration off guard but it's the Caspar Tsui Ying-wai "blues" facing the chief executive that proves to be more complicated to get over readily.

The investigation report ordered by CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is expected to be made public soon.

A question before Lam and her critics is whether the CE would emerge stronger with the help of Tsui's plight.

On one hand, this will depend on what Lam's housekeeper Eric Chan Kwok-ki and civil service chief Patrick Nip Tak-kuen have had to say in their joint report that is said to have been ready for about a week.

The report is believed to have been held back from immediate release due to the unstable pandemic situation over the past week.

This morning would be a natural occasion to release the report as it is common for Lam to speak to the media before an Executive Council meeting every Tuesday. It is widely anticipated as Lam has pledged to let the public know the findings.

Nonetheless, it can be a tricky task too.

While it is easy to release the report, what to do with the number of officials involved in the party-gate wouldn't be as straight forward.

For most of the officials involved, the answer may be simple because their involvement was limited - most of them being there merely to say "hi" and "bye" with their masks on - with the conspicuous exception of the home affairs secretary.

In the viral photo of party host Hung hugging Election Committee member Ellen Tsang Fung-chu while singing karaoke, Tsui was unfortunately photographed in the background without wearing a mask and this alone could be in breach of social distancing rules.

Strictly speaking, Tsui's backers may cry foul because this was not a serious mistake, though morally weak for a principal official.

As far as the probe is concerned, it should be straightforward.

First, social gatherings were allowed at that time. Second, Tsui may at most be accused of failing to wear a mask at the party, a practice not uncommon among officials, including the CE herself, who took off her mask at a press conference - something that forced Covid expert Yuen Kwok-yung to come to her defense. Then, Tsui at most would receive a warning.

However, it cannot be ruled out that Tsui may be sacked as Lam is clearly trying to make a judgment on political grounds to pacify an angry public.

The public would like to see some heads roll out of Hung's party and it doesn't really matter whose head it is.

In sacking Tsui, Lam could also increase her political capital by asserting her authority. But this would anger DAB and others in the local patriotic camp because Tsui is regarded as one of their men in the government.

Tsui has to wait until after the Lunar New Year before he can possibly resume duty.

Could Lam be waiting to hear from Beijing on Tsui's future? After all, a principal official is appointed by Beijing.