Middle course option on zero Covid

Exponential outbreaks of the Omicron variant have landed the government in a position where it can no longer avoid the question of whether it should adhere to the zero-Covid policy that is being made impossible by the highly transmissible, though milder, variant - or pursue a new policy to coexist with it.

Perhaps there can be an alternative somewhere in between.

The social and economic costs of keeping a zero-Covid policy have proved to be extremely high.

It might still be worth the price if the outcome - such as resumption of normal and quarantine-free travel with the mainland - were to be firm and lasting.

But if it is only a bubble that can burst any time, the high price may be unjustified.

As University of Hong Kong microbiologist Siddharth Sridhar pointed out, the city's border with the mainland may have to close the next day or week once outbreaks recur on either side even if it were reopened today or tomorrow.

Repeated attempts in the past to create a travel bubble with Singapore have shown how fragile was the thinking behind such a concept.

As a result, Singapore soon walked away from the idea, leaving the bubble to Hong Kong to face alone.

Having said that, does it mean Hong Kong has no choice but to give up its strict protocol to copy and paste what other countries have been practicing?

It may be tempting to do so, but the local immunization rate may still be too low for Hong Kong to embrace the Western practice with open arms. Instead, it may be wiser to update the policy to lie between the two opposites.

It's true that Omicron outbreaks have now passed in South Africa without inflicting serious damage. The UK is in an advanced phase of a similar trend, with numbers falling in London and plateauing in other parts of the country.

The Omicron waves still raging in Europe and the US are expected to follow a similar trend.

There is no guarantee that the same trend would replicate in Hong Kong in light of different levels of immunization, either due to mainly natural infection as in the South African situation or vaccination/natural infection combined as in the UK.

The lower-than-expected vaccination rate of the elderly population here is still the biggest safety concern.

As the number of cases continues to increase steeply, the current quarantine policy to lock every infected person and close contacts in hospitals or Penny's Bay is simply impractical.

Quarantine at home is a long-standing practice in a number of countries. Since the number of cases will easily outnumber quarantine facilities, it is only a matter of time before close contacts or even asymptomatic or mild cases will have to be allowed to quarantine at home.

As Covid detective Yuen Kwok-yung boasted that he was the first to propose immediately sealing off part of a Kwai Chung estate, he didn't fail to add that home quarantine may be necessary if the number is high.

Could the administration be reviewing its strict policy? If so, it would be more than welcome.