Trump turbulence 'the greater risk'

Michael Shum

Even though the trade environment in China and Hong Kong is not expected to improve if Democrat Kamala Harris is elected the next president of the United States, businesses are more intimidated by the uncertainties brought by a Donald Trump win, scholar Larry Qiu Dongxiao believes.

Speaking to The Standard ahead of election day, the chair professor and head of Lingnan University's economics department said Sino-American trade has been on a downward trend since Trump took the reins in 2017 as the 45th president of the United States.

"The situation did not get any better after Joe Biden succeeded him in 2021. It even worsened as there were more tariffs, which made sense as the Democratic Party has always been more conservative and takes a hardline stance against China," Qiu said.

"I think the trade environment between China and the US will not take a turn for the better, and it might even continue to worsen if Harris is elected as she is expected to maintain her party's tough and unfriendly stance against China and Hong Kong."

On the other hand, despite being a Republican, Trump is expected to take things "to extremes" and his policies will either be more conservative or more open compared to those with Harris, according to Qiu.

"[Trump] might cancel trade tariffs when he is happy with a deal with China, which will improve the trade environment between China and the US, or he might increase tariffs when he sees fit," Qiu said.

"He is not as reasonable and consistent with policies as his Democrat competitor. His track record also shows the world that he is not used to honoring agreements. We all saw how [disrespectful] he was of various international treaties in the past."

Although there might be a slight chance that Sino-US trade will improve, Qiu said the business sector will not fancy Trump being elected again.

"There is too much uncertainty. I think that will overshadow the opportunity for an improvement in trade between the US and China - as well as Hong Kong," Qiu said.

"Trump's policies will sometimes be good and sometimes be bad. If you can make him happy, he will roll out policies in your favor, but these might just be an illusion as the situation might suddenly take a nosedive and get worse."

Qiu believes Chinese businesses would prefer Harris - whose ideology he said has been clear and consistent - more than Trump, despite everyone expecting the trade situation to continue deteriorating under her.

"Businessmen hate uncertainties as they can make preparations or draw up mitigation measures if they foresee the situation to worsen. They can move funds or even sell their businesses," Qiu said.

"But there is nothing they can do to mitigate uncertainties."

michael.shum@singtaonewscorp.com