District lockdown timing 'missed' as scaled-down option gains support

We have already missed the best time for a district-based lockdown, says respiratory disease expert Leung Chi-chiu.

And the government does not, at the moment, have any plans to lock down the entire city, said Chief Secretary John Lee Ka-chiu after meeting with mainland officials in Shenzhen on Saturday.

But there is speculation a scaled-down version is being considered - and that is dividing Hong Kong into smaller districts and locking a district down for five days, during which residents would be tested.

Medical and health services sector lawmaker David Lam Tzit-yuen supported that idea.

Speaking on television yesterday, Lam said it is difficult to conduct citywide testing, but what the government could do is test residents by district and require all those living in estates that have infections to undergo tests.

The government could also distribute rapid test kits based on the level of risk people are facing, he added.

Lam suggested that residents living in Covid-hit estates be banned from going to another district by public transport, instead of placing them under home isolation.

"When there is an outbreak in a district, the government should not only test residents living in the same building as patients. Instead, all residents in the Covid-hit estate should get tested," Lam said.

"People who have not been tested should not take public transport or travel across the city. For example, the government could impose restrictions on MTR and only allow vaccinated passengers who tested negative and did not go to high-risk areas to take the train," he added.

Leung, however, said the right time for district lockdowns has already passed.

He said such an approach is suitable only at the beginning of an outbreak, but Covid has already spread across the city.

Even if authorities lock down a district, outbreaks will continue in other areas, Leung said, adding transmissions within families and inside buildings will continue within lockdown areas.

To stop a transmission chain, the lockdown must last as long as the virus's incubation period after the last case is identified - meaning a total of five days is not enough, Leung said.

Leung said authorities can only curb the transmission chain during a citywide lockdown if they are able to detect and isolate patients quickly.

If the government fails to conduct frequent universal testing during the lockdown, the transmission chain cannot be stopped within one to two incubation periods and the pandemic will rebound again when the lockdown is lifted, he said.

And Leung warned that a long-term lockdown would be a serious blow to Hong Kong's economy and livelihoods.

Lam also said that mainland experts could help control the fifth wave and that sending them to Hong Kong does not mean Beijing does not trust local experts.

"It looks like [mainland and Hong Kong experts] are two groups of people but, in fact, they always cooperate. Many experts from all around the world would discuss important issues to reach a consensus. It ... could lead to new ideas," he said.

Meanwhile, queues at testing centers were shorter yesterday after the government said only residents in blocks with two infections are subject to compulsory tests.

The government also called on people to comply with the two-person gathering cap. Sources said police issued three penalty tickets and 11 verbal warnings to helpers who usually gather on Sunday.

wallis.wang@singtaonewscorp.com