Expert sees April end to virus

The coronavirus outbreak will hit a peak in the mainland this month and may be over by April, Beijing's senior medical adviser said in a new assessment of the epidemic rattling the world.

Zhong Nanshan, an 83-year-old epidemiologist who won fame for combating SARS in 2003, shed tears for Li Wenliang, the doctor who died from the effects of the virus after being reprimanded for raising the alarm.

But Zhong is optimistic the outbreak will soon slow, with the number of new cases now declining in some places.

The peak should come in the middle or late this month followed by a plateau and a decrease, Zhong said, basing his forecast on mathematical modeling, recent events and official action.

"I hope this outbreak may be over in something like April," he said in a hospital run by Guangzhou Medical University, where 11 virus patients were being treated.

Although his comments may soothe some global anxiety over a virus that has killed more than 1,100 people - almost all in China - Zhong's previous forecast of an earlier peak proved premature.

"We don't know why it's so contagious, so that's a big problem," added Zhong, who helped identify flaws in China's emergency response systems during the SARS crisis.

He said there was a gradual reduction in new cases in Guangdong and in Zhejiang among other places. "So that's good news."

With China now taking unprecedented measures to seal infected regions and limit transmission, Zhong applauded the government for locking down Wuhan, which lost control of the virus early on.

"The local government, local health-care authority should have some responsibility for this," he said. "Their work was not done well."

Wuhan authorities have come under fire for heavy-handed treatment of Li, reprimanded by police early last month for "spreading rumors" about the disease before becoming its best-known fatality on Friday.

"The majority of the people think he's the hero of China," Zhong said, wiping tears. "I'm so proud of him. He told people the truth at the end of December and then he passed away."

Behind him stood hundreds of doctors wanting to tell the truth and now being encouraged by the government to do so, he said. "We really need to listen."

Zhong, who said the government's unwillingness to share information prolonged the SARS crisis, said Beijing had done much better this time on issues like transparency and cooperating with the World Health Organization.

But more should be done, he said, including an end to the trade in wildlife - which loosed the virus - better international cooperation on hygiene technology, improved operation of disease control centers and a global "sentry" system to warn of epidemics.