Expert warns of long battle ahead as curbs fall short

The Covid-19 epidemic will only ease when 70 percent of the world population develops antibodies against it, microbiologist Yuen Kwok-yung says, warning of a long battle ahead.

"Only 0.1 percent of people are immune to Covid-19 and the ratio will increase by 5 percent every year," Yuen said on radio yesterday. "Only when 70 percent of all people have antibodies will the number of infection cases dwindle."

He predicted a dire outcome, with the epidemic failing to end anytime soon as worldwide efforts are "proving insufficient to completely curb the spread of the virus."

People who recovered could be immune for between five and 10 years, Yuen estimated, citing a University of Hong Kong team discovery of more antibodies in recovered patients' blood.

While foreign countries may develop a vaccine in one to two years, Yuen warned that getting hold of the vaccines could prove difficult.

Yuen added that Covid-19 has escalated to a pandemic, with chains of infections having already been established in outbreak areas.

"It does not matter whether the World Health Organization declares it or not, some people have already lost confidence in the WHO, and health authorities are rolling out anti-epidemic measures according to their data and figures," he said.

Executive Council member Lam Ching-choi, who is also a doctor, said the government could consider resuming classes in mid-April with shortened class hours while only requiring a small number of students to begin classes first.

"The government's anti-virus strategy may have to last for one to two years. But residents have to live normally during the period, such as gradually resuming classes," he said on another radio program.

Lam said the epidemic had entered its third phase, meaning the government has to combat cases arriving from other countries.

"I think that Hong Kong should keep using the containment strategy, and it may last for a year or two until effective medicine or vaccines are available."

He said people should consider how to resume normal lives amid a long-term battle against the virus.

"If the virus really develops into a pandemic, Hong Kong could not be shut down in the long run. The city will be killed by the closure instead of the virus. Lots of people will be unemployed if there are no economic activities in Hong Kong."

michael.shum@singtaonewscorp.com