Citi lifts home price growth forecast to 12pc in 2026

Citi has raised its forecast for Hong Kong home prices to a 12 percent growth this year, up from its previous estimate of 8 percent, citing a 4-year low in sellable units, according to its report released on Tuesday.

The bank expects residential prices to rise further 6 percent in 2027, which would bring prices back near October 2022 levels, while it is still 11 percent below the previous peak, said the bank in the report.

Meanwhile, primary market sales volume surged 34 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2026, hitting a 22-year high, while developers saw sales value jump 95 percent. Secondary volume also climbed 44 percent year-on-year to a five-year high.

Grade A office rents in Central are forecast to increase by 3 percent in 2026 and 7 percent in 2027. Despite the projected recovery, rents will remain 30 percent below their previous peak, with room for further improvements should HK economy and capital market activities continue to expand.

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