Mustafa Suleyman, chief executive of Microsoft’s AI division, stated in an interview with the Financial Times that AI will be capable of replacing most white-collar jobs within the next 12 to 18 months. This includes roles such as lawyers, accountants, project managers, and marketing professionals, with the majority of these tasks potentially being fully automated by AI.
Is Suleyman boasting about AI’s capabilities, or is he warning us about a significant rise in global unemployment due to AI? His statement contains a major contradiction: if AI causes unemployment to surge dramatically, it will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in global consumer spending power, which in turn could plunge the global economy into a severe crisis. If that happens, how many people will still be able to afford AI services?
When a product’s introduction results in people losing their jobs and their purchasing power, how can that product continue to grow? AI development is currently facing this exact dilemma. An even bigger issue is the enormous funding required to sustain AI growth, running into hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars. If rising unemployment and falling consumer spending accompany AI’s progress, where will this funding come from?
Therefore, when industry leaders like Nvidia’s founder Jensen Huang claim that there is no bubble in AI development, have they truly considered the potentially devastating impact AI could have on humanity? Do they still believe the market can consistently provide sufficient funding to sustain AI’s growth? Or is Huang’s belief influenced by his vested interests in AI? The market’s perspective is beginning to change, especially as companies like Alphabet have had to raise US$20 billion (HK$156 billion) in debt to finance their AI initiatives. This signals that AI development can no longer rely solely on operating revenues – a crisis for all companies advancing AI technology.
This is the primary reason behind the recent fears of an AI bubble burst.
Andrew Wong is a veteran independent commentator
