Sunak and Tories 'headed for electoral wipeout'

Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party is heading for a wipeout in the UK general election on July 4, according to three major polls, including one that projected even the premier will lose his seat.

Analysis by Savanta and Electoral Calculus for the Daily Telegraph found the Tories are on track to win just 53 seats, an all-time low for the party. YouGov put them on 108 seats - which would also be a record - while a More in Common survey for the News Agents podcast projected the governing party slipping to 155. That would be 10 lower than in 1997, when the Conservatives last lost power to the Labour Party.

Even worse, the Savanta survey shows Sunak losing his seat of Richmond and Northallerton.

"The Conservative party is set for the largest defeat in its history," YouGov said, predicting "significant losses" in the southwest, southeast and east of England.

All three polls put Labour leader Keir Starmer on course as prime minister: More in Common said the opposition is heading for a 162-seat majority, approaching the Labour's best-ever result, the 179-seat majority secured in 1997 by Tony Blair; YouGov projects a 200-seat Labour majority; Savanta has them with a 382-seat advantage.

More in Common sees Labour winning 406 seats, YouGov has them on 425 - a record - and Savanta sees them winning 516 seats, or almost four in every five constituencies.

The trio of surveys project the Liberal Democrats making gains, recovering their status as the UK's third party, which they lost in 2015 after serving five years in a coalition with the Tories. More in Common put them on 49 seats, up 38 on 2019's tally, while YouGov put them on 67 - a record. Savanta puts them on 50, almost level with the Tories.

YouGov sees Nigel Farage's Reform UK party taking five seats, while the other two polls have him winning none, despite recently having overtaken the Tories in at least one national poll. A long fieldwork period may not have captured Reform's recent rise in the poll, More in Common Director Luke Tryl said on X.

A constituency poll by Survation in Clacton, where Farage is standing as a candidate, showed him winning the seat with 42 percent of the vote, compared with 27 percent for the Tory incumbent, Giles Watling.

While the More in Common poll projected a smaller Labour majority, a 162-seat majority would still be more than double that secured five years ago by former Tory PM Boris Johnson.

"This shows the Conservatives barely holding 150 seats ... shows how deep a hole it finds itself in," Tryl said in a statement.

Savanta found that in Richmond and Northallerton, Sunak is heading for a 29 percent vote share compared to 34 percent for Labour's Tom Wilson. Still, the other two polls see the PM retaining his seat.