Citi lifted Hong Kong home price growth this year to 8 percent from 3 percent, driven by decreased home supplies, talent housing demand, and wealth effects from a buoyant stock market.
As the home price rose higher-than-expected 4.7 percent in 2025, while the year-to-date growth reached 1 percent, the bank decided to increase the home price estimate to an 8 percent hike, with further acceleration into 2027 under a multi-year upcycle, according to Citi.
New land supplies fell short of property sales, standing at a 14-year low, while available supply was reduced by 10,000 units within one year, it said.
Citi also noted that about 20,000 units will be completed this year, and new home sales will reach 21,000 units, marking a return to net take-up for the first time since 2019, adding that lower completions are expected to be seen in the next 2 to 3 years.
Besides, the number of non-local student visa approvals rose to 90,000, coupled with the 160,000 talent inflow, which will support both rental and future demand in Hong Kong's property market, it said.
As the gross rental yield stands at 3.5 percent, it's comparable with the mortgage cost for units measured smaller than 70 square meters, it added.
