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Battle lines are becoming sharper as the United States heads towards the Congressional midterm elections on November 3.
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The primary elections by the Republican and Democratic Parties to select their candidates for November’s big battle are almost done. With less than five months to go before the two sides face off, candidates are accusing opponents of everything from corruption and sex scandals to voter fraud. It is shaping up to be the nastiest election campaign in recent memory. The election outcome is expected to dramatically change American politics like never before, regardless of which side wins control of Congress. The Republicans now control both Houses of Congress with slim majorities.
If the Republican Party retains control of Congress, it will further embolden US President Donald Trump to pursue often unpopular policies such as starting new wars, imposing global tariffs, changing the appearance of Washington, DC, with his vanity projects, and pressuring Republicans in Congress to do his bidding in his remaining two years in office. His grip on the Republican Party is so tight that few dare to oppose him. He started the war against Iran and ordered the US military to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro without Congressional approval, even though only Congress can authorize wars. He imposed global tariffs without Congressional approval.
He bypassed Congress to demolish the White House East Wing to build a ballroom and add his name to the Kennedy Center. The Republican-controlled Congress has not pushed back. But the courts have ruled in favor of lawsuits to overturn Trump’s global tariffs, remove his name from the Kennedy Center, and block his vanity ballroom.
The Democrats have made clear they will be out for blood if they win control of both Houses of Congress. They have accused Trump of being the most corrupt president in US history by using his presidential powers to enrich himself and his family. They have accused him of ignoring the Constitution and bypassing Congress to implement policies.
They have threatened to impeach Trump and to hold Congressional hearings to interrogate his top officials for obeying policy orders that Democrats have labeled as illegal. And they have ridiculed the Republicans as sycophants who do not dare stand up to Trump.
Polls show the Democrats will likely win control of the House of Representatives, but it is a toss-up as to which side will win the Senate. A mixed outcome with each side controlling one House of Congress will throw America into political gridlock until the 2028 presidential election, when voters elect a new president and Congress.
Aware that his Republican Party will likely lose control of the House of Representatives, Trump ordered the governors of Republican-controlled states to redraw voting constituencies in a way that would favor Republican candidates, even though redistricting traditionally happens every decade after a nationwide census.
The Republican governors largely complied, making it likely that Republican candidates will gain a few seats from redistricting. But Trump is so unpopular that the Democrats will likely still win the House, but by a smaller margin.
Michael Chugani is a longtime journalist who has worked in Hong Kong, the US, and London
