In the 1994 comedy Dumb and Dumber, Jim Carrey's Lloyd Christmas asks a woman to level with him about his chances. "Not good," she says. "Like one out of a hundred?" "More like one out of a million." Lloyd beams: "So you're telling me there's a chance!"
As David Morgan reported for Idol Horse this week, that scene is the perfect frame for Royal Ascot's pursuit of Ka Ying Rising. David Hayes hasn't said no. He's said it's "a possibility but probably unlikely." And so Ascot and sections of the racing media, like Lloyd, hear only the part they want to hear.
Who can blame them? The world's top-rated galloper is exactly the kind of horse a meeting built on prestige craves. Listen to Ascot's Nick Smith and you don't hear a man pitching a horse's connections so much as a man pitching his own bosses on why the cheque should be written. Bespoke packages, generous travel allowances and brand value – it's a compelling case. It's also, revealingly, a case Ascot now has to make. There was a time when great Australian sprinters came to Ascot to be validated. Ka Ying Rising doesn't need validating. He is also a gelding, so there's no stud value to build, just prize-money to win, and Hayes is blunt about the math. Ka Ying Rising averages around HK$6million a run and at Ascot he would race for a first prize far less than that, all while absorbing the risk of quarantine, travel and a punishing four-month transit between Hong Kong, Sydney and back. With The Everest worth AU$20 million – more than HK$100m total – the prize-money argument is lost before it starts. If he makes the trip, he'd be doing British racing a favor.
Which is why British racing should get its house in order. When the Epsom non-runner shambles unfolded on Derby Day, punters left waiting 20 minutes for a decision that was probably wrong, three in every five dollars in that pool belonged to customers on the other side of the world. The punter in a Kowloon betting shop is entitled to exactly the standards he's accustomed to from Sha Tin on a Sunday. What he got was a mess.
This week saw some more head-scratchers from British stewards. Jockey Amie Waugh collected 14 days at Ayr for failing to ensure her mount ran on its merits, while at Royal Ascot Josh Parr got 20 for three strikes too many with the whip. Sit with that. In short, a heavier penalty for trying too hard than for not trying hard enough. It's farcical, and it's the kind of inconsistency that might make Ka King Rising’s connections wonder why they'd ship their treasure across the world to compete under it.
Jockey Club CEO Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges has floated the idea of an elite tier of global racing linked by broadcasting and entertainment, a genuine super-brand capable of drawing sponsors and private equity. Ultimately something that would bring new fans to the sport. A Champions League of sorts. Royal Ascot belongs in that tier. But belonging means earning it on professionalism, not coasting on history and a glimpse of the royal box.
The prize-money gap, British racing can't easily close. The professionalism gap, it can at least try. Ka Ying Rising competing at Royal Ascot would be wonderful for the sport. The least the sport can do there is make it worth the trip.
