Exports to rebound next year, says TDC

Hong Kong's exports are expected to grow by up to 6 percent next year after potentially dropping as much as 9 percent this year, according to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council.

Shipments will grow by 4 to 6 percent year-on-year in 2024, thanks to rising demand for artificial intelligence devices and related electronic products around the world, the TDC said. That compared to a projected contraction of between 7 and 9 percent this year.

Several leading indicators including the inventory levels suggest that the worst is over for the city's exports, director of research Irina Fan said.

The overall Inventory Index reached 59.3 this quarter as exporters continued to run down on inventory, according to the HKTDC Export Index.

But Fan also said that the high-interest-rate environment is to persist in the first half of next year and it may take three months for the impact of any rate cuts to be reflected on the economy.

She estimates that exports to Asia will pick up at a faster pace than those to Europe and the United States.

The export index dropped by 5.5 points to 35 in the quarter - the second consecutive quarterly decrease.