Pandemic could end middle of next year

The pandemic could end mid-next year and people would be able to ditch masks outdoors and during nonpeak seasons, says government adviser Lau Yu-lung.

He made the prediction as Hong Kong recorded 10,586 infections yesterday, surpassing the 10,000 mark for the first time in five months.

Lau, talking on radio, said history has shown that pandemics usually end in three to five years.

It has been over two-and-a-half years since Covid emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan. So Lau predicted the World Health Organization would declare the end of the pandemic in the middle of next year.

With high vaccination and infection rates by then, Hongkongers could finally ditch masks, though they might still need them in crowded places and during peak seasons.

Lau said the risk of severe illness would decline due to the evolution of the coronavirus, reinfection of patients and higher vaccination rates. And people would no longer need to get the jab when 90 percent of patients are asymptomatic. Children, meanwhile, would only show mild symptoms.

The Centre for Health Protection's head of communicable disease branch, Chuang Shuk-kwan, said the city had 10,342 fresh local infections and 244 imported cases, as well as 11 deaths.

Among the serious cases was that of a 15-month-old girl fighting for her life in the United Christian Hospital's intensive care unit.

The Hospital Authority's chief manager for quality and standards, Lau Ka-hin, said the girl had a fever on Tuesday, when she tested positive. She then began cramping yesterday morning. That stopped later but she remained in critical condition.

There was also an outbreak at the hospital as five patients aged 52 to 83 in the same ward tested positive. All of them were in stable condition.

Chuang said 139 cases were reported from 84 schools, including five classes that had to be suspended for a week.

Six elderly care homes and a disabled home reported a total of 11 infections.

Lawmaker Junius Ho Kwan-yiu of the Election Committee constituency tested positive on Wednesday.

Chuang also said the government will lower the age limit for compulsory use of the vaccine pass to five years old.

Children will be required to receive two doses under the vaccine pass arrangement but there will be a two-month grace period allowing parents to take their kids to get vaccinated, Chuang said.

Chuang said the government will announce details of the vaccine pass arrangement for children next week.

It is understood that authorities are also considering shortening the buffer period between people's second and third shots to five months from six.

Lau supported the widening of the vaccine pass arrangement, saying it will offer more incentive for parents to have their children vaccinated.

"Over the past two weeks, many children developed brain inflammation following Covid infection because they did not get the jab or are not fully vaccinated," Lau said.

"It would take lots of effort to bring children back from critical to stable conditions and they still have to go through much rehabilitation training even after their situation has stabilized."

University of Hong Kong infectious disease expert Ho Pak-leung said lowering the age limit for the vaccine pass arrangement is "the most effective way to boost vaccination rate."

Ho expects there will be new variants in winter and that the new Omicron BA275 subvariant detected in various countries, including India, the United Kingdom and the United States, could enter Hong Kong in the future.

wallis.wang@singtaonewscorp.com