With the World Cup just weeks away, the latest Sing Tao survey finds 40 percent of Hongkongers know an illegal gambler, and minors are now being dragged into the fold.

The survey, conducted between April 20 and April 29, questioned more than 10,000 individuals about illegal gambling in the city.

The survey found that 40 percent of the interviewees have friends or family members who have gambled with illegal bookmakers over the past 12 months.

Among those surveyed, 22 percent of respondents said their friends or family place between six and 30 illegal bets per week, while some 10 percent said their loved ones wager more than 30 times weekly.

Alarmingly, it is estimated that the illegal gambling operators provided bookmaking services for more than 2,000 football matches each week. According to the Asian Racing Federation, Hongkongers lost at least HK$15 billion to illegal gambling operators in 2023, with the study suggesting a rising trend.

Notably, 14 percent of surveyed citizens indicate that their relatives or friends place illegal bets averaging HK$5,001 to HK$10,000 per week, equivalent to about HK$20,000 to HK$40,000 per month.   

Online infiltration reaching minors

High smartphone and computer penetration have turned Hong Kong into a prime target for global illegal bookmakers using internet infiltration.

Around 51 percent of respondents said their relatives and friends learned about the illegal gambling platforms after encountering ads on social platforms like Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Telegram. Worryingly, the widespread gambling trap has reached school campuses, where a secondary school principal revealed he had encountered students participating in illegal gambling.

The principal said websites lured teenagers with a "deposit HK$ 1,000, get HK$1,000 free" promotion. With bets on football, esports, and live casino tables, all payable with a tap away. Minors can fall into these traps within minutes.

Considering this year's World Cup features over 100 matches – the longest tournament in history – analysts expect illegal gambling site traffic to surge by at least 50 percent during the event.

The survey found that 62 percent of respondents believe their football-gambling friends or family will increase their wagers during the World Cup. Some 27 percent estimated total illegal bets between HK$10,001 and HK$50,000 per person, with one percent expecting the amount to exceed HK$200,000.

Buy now, pay later

The survey also discovered that 25 percent of respondents said the illegal bettors they knew had experienced illegal gambling operators defaulting, fraud, or personal data leaks.

Regarding possible measures to tackle illegal gambling, respondents showed an almost even split across several options, indicating a desire for a multi-pronged approach from the government. Among the options, most asked for higher penalties for illegal gambling (19 percent), followed by stronger law enforcement (18 percent), website blocks (16 percent), and a full review of the Gambling Ordinance (16 percent) to plug the loopholes.

Lawmaker Peter Shiu Ka-fai warned that illegal bookmakers often lure gamblers with "buy now, pay later" schemes, which leave victims drowning in debt and ruined families.

Another lawmaker, Chris Ip Ngo-tung, recalled handling gambling addiction cases as a district councilor that required psychological counseling.

As the World Cup approaches, he expressed particular concern about young people falling into irreversible addiction, urging police to step up enforcement and public education to crack down on illegal gambling.

Prediction markets carry massive price tag for HK finances

Apart from illegal gambling, Hong Kong is also losing an estimated HK$6 billion in annual betting duty due to the emergence of prediction market trading worldwide.

Global trading volume on prediction market platforms reportedly reached US$64 billion (HK$499.2 billion) last year, marking a staggering 300 percent increase from the previous year.

Hong Kong is no exception to the trend, with 23 percent of the survey respondents noting that their friends or family have placed bets on sports events through prediction markets.

Polymarket, for example, offers bets on everything from football, basketball and baseball to motorsports, esports and horse racing.

It is estimated that monthly trading volume on prediction markets will increase fivefold by 2030.

Economist Simon Lee Siu-po estimates that rising prediction market activity could cost Hong Kong more than HK$6 billion annually in lost betting duty and profits tax. He also voiced concerns about its influence on the Hong Kong Jockey Club's income, which in turn affects the many charities reliant on its funding.

In the 2024-25 fiscal year, the Jockey Club paid a record HK$28.8 billion in betting duty and profits tax to the government. If illegal gambling and prediction markets continue to grow, Lee warns that the figure could drop by 10 percent.

The Investor and Financial Education Council under the Securities and Futures Commission has stated that trading on prediction markets may constitute illegal gambling, warning bettors that they would have no legal recourse if a transaction goes wrong.

Lee Yi-ying, chairwoman of the Hong Kong Subsidized Secondary Schools Council, called on schools to strengthen gambling prevention education and urged parents to remain vigilant.

 

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