US Small Business Optimism Index Falls to 98.8 in September

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 98.8 in September 2025, dropping for the first time in three months from August's 100.8 and falling below market forecasts of 100.5.

The decrease reflected growing concerns among small business owners regarding supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. Fourteen percent of owners identified inflation as their most significant business problem, while 64% reported experiencing some degree of supply chain impact.

A positive development emerged in actual earnings changes, which reached their highest level since December 2021. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that while most owners consider their businesses fundamentally healthy, they face challenges from rising prices, moderated sales expectations, and persistent labor market difficulties. He emphasized that small business owners maintain resilience despite high uncertainty as they navigate potential policy impacts.